Friday, December 30, 2011

Silver Open Interest Appears to have Bottomed on 12/8

Open interest in silver increased by 1,252  contracts (6.26 million paper ounces) Wednesday to 105,245.  Open interest appears to have bottommed on 12/8, with open interest hitting a low of a mere 94,999 contracts.  OI has increased nearly every day since 12/8, and has now risen 11% from the low of 95,000.  While silver's price has bottomed at least 3 week's later (if today's lows near $26 prove to be the bottom), the sustained recovery in open interest may well be a leading indicator that the worst of silver's correction may be nearing completion. 

Silver is now trading in contango from spot through the Dec 13 contract, entering backwardation with the July 2014 contract, and increasing to a .554 discount for the July 16 contract vs. spot.


Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (FINAL)
Trade Date: 12/29/2011
Month
Open
High
Low
 Last
Change
Settle
Estimated
Volume
Prior Day
Open Interest
JAN 12
26.925
27.380
26.385
-
+.082
27.274
132
370
FEB 12
27.065
27.400
26.150
-
+.082
27.294
82
112
MAR 12
27.080
27.475
26.145
27.355
+.081
27.315
34,103
58,999
MAY 12
27.140
27.390
26.270
-
+.076
27.358
488
9,129
JLY 12
26.985
27.500
26.500
-
+.073
27.394
452
3,557
SEP 12
26.985
27.000
26.670
-
+.074
27.424
264
2,490
DEC 12
27.070
27.575
26.565
-
+.072
27.460
430
13,875
JAN 13
-
-
-
-
+.072
27.458
-
9
MAR 13
-
-
-
-
+.072
27.453
-
1,156
MAY 13
-
-
-
-
+.071
27.436
-
1,078
JLY 13
-
-
-
-
+.071
27.414
-
3,211
SEP 13
-
-
-
-
+.071
27.373
-
165
DEC 13
26.885
26.885
26.705A
-
+.071
27.310
11
8,002
JLY 14
Backwardation-
Starts-
Here-
>-
+.070
27.174
-
791
DEC 14
-
-
-
-
+.069
27.103
-
1,451
JLY 15
-
-
-
-
+.074
26.953
-
227
DEC 15
-
-
-
-
+.079
26.853
-
585
JLY 16
-
-
-
-
+.079
26.720
-
38
Total
35,962
105,245