Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Stewart Thomson: Gold to Quadruple, Silver to Crash When OTC Derivative Complex Implodes

Stewart Thomson gives his thoughts on silver in his latest piece.
While Thomson believes silver is headed MUCH higher from here, he believes that when the OTC derivative complex finally completely detonates, silver will crash while gold holds onto its gains.
An interesting perspective, especially as it seems to be shared by Jim Sinclair. (He has never quite come out and said that to our knowledge, yet he emphasizes that gold will not crash like in the early 1980's at the end of the current bull run, but remains strangely silent about silver's fate at the end of the current bull).

The public is already nervous right now. What happens if the market drops thousands of Dow points from here? The answer is that the public would move into cash and perhaps bonds, and they would do it in size. Their stock market “marked to 15-20% gains a year forever model” pipedream would finally be buried in a marked to market coffin, in the Dow 9,500–11,500 zone. Since their own stocks have generally performed much worse than the Dow, that final exit would likely be one of substantial loss booking.

The US dollar has to be substantially devalued to make even a portion of the OTC derivatives and unfunded liabilities debt manageable. It makes sense that the public would abandon the stock market and go “all-in” on the dollar just in time for a dollar crisis to explode on the world financial stage.

At the beginning of the year in 1979, gold was trading around $200. About a year later price had quadrupled to about $800. I expect the price of gold to repeat that type of parabolic action, as unprecedented institutional liquidity flows out of the US dollar begin to occur. My ultimate gold price target of $6000 is about 4 times the current gold price, something to keep in mind.

A new bull market was since reborn for both silver and gold stocks, but don’t think you can outperform gold with silver or gold stocks in this OTC derivatives-based crisis….without taking some serious kicks in the financial head on the downside. Focus on enduring those kicks in the head, because you are not going to avoid them, despite what the timers are telling you. At some point, I think silver disconnects from gold and implodes, while gold sits there watching the action with a smile. I think it happens at prices far above $50 an ounce, but I think it happens.
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