Sunday, February 12, 2012

Currency Devaluation is NOT the Answer

I came across an article on Market Oracle from Frank Shostak, Chief Economist of M.F. Global. Huh? Yes, Chief Economist of M.F. Global posting on Market Oracle! Frank details the mindset of countries who believe currency devaluation will solve their country's problems.

 "According to popular thinking the key to economic growth is demand for goods and services. It is held that increases or decreases in demand for goods and services are behind rises and declines in the economy's production of goods. Hence, in order to keep the economy going, economic policies must pay close attention to overall demand. "

The article goes on to compare % of imports to the % of exports in respective of overall demand to conclude,

"However, this merely means that in this interval the citizens of the devaluating country are getting less for what they are selling abroad and paying more for what they are buying abroad; concomitantly they must restrict their consumption. This effect may appear as a boon in the opinion of those for whom the balance of trade is the yardstick of a nation's welfare. In plain language it is to be described in this way: The British citizen must export more British goods in order to buy that quantity of tea which he received before the devaluation for a smaller quantity of exported British goods."

Hey Frank, maybe you should have utilized your knowledge of currency devaluation and your foresight, or lack thereof, to see that the ECB was and is going keep printing more money!  Therefore, you should not rehypothecate your client funds into bonds of the most indebted European nations.  Maybe, stack a little in phyzz or how about a streaming metal play such as Silver Wheaton.  Just a thought.  No, that would be considered too risky now, wouldn't it? 

As a follow-up read to the Doc's Q and A this morning, here is the link to the full post.

Will Currency Devaluation Fix the Eurozone?