With the S&P massively downgrading the Eurozone nations Friday, The Doc interviewed Jim Willie of goldenjackass.com today regarding his thoughts on the Euro crisis and the implications to gold and silver.
When asked to clarify the timing for his call for an Italian bank to fail and initiate a domino like reaction in the banking system Jim responded:
Timing questions are the hardest- definitely the hardest. I don’t know, it could be a month. Back in early December I thought it was going to be early in the new year, like in the middle of January- late January that the first Italian bank would go. And it looks like it’s going to be UniCredit. UniCredit is just hanging on by threads. We don’t have full access to what their portfolio is but all indications are that they’re holding a lot of toxic paper and they’re shedding a lot of probably government bonds, and they’re selling a lot at the ECB window.
He continues further:
So next on tap is UniCredit going bad, going bust, failing, turning to dust. And when that happens look for at least another couple Italian banks to also go bust. And when that happens look for the French banks to go bust. The three major French banks. Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale. And when that happens look for at least one or two London banks to go bust- they’re all inter-connected!
We hear constantly about the counter parties for the derivatives that these banks own. And we hear that they offset. Like Bank A has credit derivatives for default of Bank B and vice versa, so they’re both ok, they cancel out. Well that’s DEAD WRONG! DEAD WRONG!! THEY BOTH DIE! They don’t help each other! It’s like saying well this guy’s drowning in a pool in the deep water, and so is his friend! Neither one can swim, but it’ll cancel them out, and they’ll both be ok. THAT’S A BUNCH OF GARBAGE!! The counter party risk is MUTUAL AND DEADLY!
When one or two banks go down, it’s going to hit overnight, hit rapidly, and probably involve a dozen banks. That’s my feeling Doc.
Jim provided a powerful interview with much more on the Euro crisis, gold, and quantitative easing. Part 1 of the interview is now available here
Jim Willie's public analysis can be found at SilverDoctors, as well GoldenJackass.com
Jim also publishes two excellent subscription newsletters here, which are available for a very reasonable $110 for a 6-month subscription.