Responding to a reader inquiry, the legendary Jim Sinclair has suggested that the grouping of cycles indicates that the time to consider taking profits in gold and silver may be 2015. Will we see the final, 3rd stage public mania in gold and silver play out over the next 3 years?
There is a question I would like to ask you about the current bull market in gold that you say we are in. As all bull markets eventually end, my question to you is not, "if" there will come a day to take profits, but when to take profits and what to do with those profits. For example, I would think of myself as a bad investor to ride the gold market from its lows clear up to its highs and back down to its lows again. If gold goes to $2,000 or $5,000 or $10,000 dollars per ounce at what point should one sell the physical metal? Hypothetically if gold were to go to $5,000 dollars per ounce or achieve a 1:1 price ratio with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, does one actually sell the physical coin for U.S. dollars (knowing the U.S. dollar is just another fiat currency)? Should one wait for an alternative currency to arise and sell the physical metal for that currency?
I hope I have been clear in what I am asking. Basically if one is holding wealth in gold/silver at what point does one take profits, and what does one roll those profits into at the end of the bull market in gold/silver? You might think my question premature as there are possibly years left in this bull market in gold, but I don’t want to be the last man standing who just watched the bull market profits disappear. (I call to your attention the gold price action of the 1980s when gold soared to $800 per ounce only to settle for the next decade between $200-$300.)
I would appreciate any advice and insight you might have.
You have presented the most difficult of questions. Last evening, I answered that via a graph of emotions that finds tops, but not necessarily with the definition of the long term top appended.
I do not think a ratio to the Dow is the answer.
The model answer is when gold sells (per ounce) at the value that equals the total dollar value of US foreign debt divided by the assumed number of ounces of gold the US government has, gold is full priced.
The reason for that is because at that price the international balance sheet of the USA and therefore the dollar is in balance. However, that number, which was $900 in 1980, is now slightly above $12,400.
If grouping of cycles is of any use time wise, that suggests 2015.