Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Afternoon Silver Update

Silver has risen nicely today back to the top of its trading range near $33.
This level has capped silver 3 times now since the sell-off to $26, developing a broad trading range between $27.50/$28 and $33.
Silver's move up to $33 has been stealthy- it doesn't FEEL like silver has gained 23% in the last 2 weeks. 
To help put this percentage gain into perspective- a 23% gain from silver's September high near $44 would have taken silver to a new nominal all-time high above $54!
Those who bought silver into the lows, really at anything below $29, but especially into the lows of $26 have already seen substantial gains.
Psychologically however, it feels like silver has merely stopped declining and is bumbling around in the lower $30's. 
The MACD is turning up however, and we are looking at a breakout if (IF) silver can decisively clear $34-$34.50. 
If silver decisively clears $34-$35, it will likely jump to $37-$38 in a flash, as there is just not much resistance in between.  Combine this with historically low open interest and the smallest commercial short position in silver in years, and you have the potential for a sharp rally.
Again, not to get too far ahead of ourselves, silver has not yet broken out of its broad trading range to the upside.  If the cartel can keep silver capped under $33-$34, silver could head back down to test support at $29.50-$30 again.
Again, TA can be thrown out the window if the cartel intends on pile driving silver down one last time ahead of position limits being implemented next week by the CFTC. 

Many readers have emailed regarding skepticism that the CFTC will have any real teeth in its decision- that either exemptions will be given to JP Morgan, etc, or else the timeline for compliance will be extremely generous to allow the naked shorts as much time to cover as possible.
While it looks like the CFTC will finally take a vote on position limits next Tuesday the 18th, and JP Morgan covered 36 million ounces of their naked short position into the latest silver smash to $26, we share your skepticism regarding any legitimate ruling by the CFTC actually enforcing the end of the cartel's manipulation of gold and silver.  We have long maintained that it will be the market that ends the manipulation and not the CFTC.  We shall find out soon.

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]