Friday, August 19, 2011

Ben Davies: Expect $2,100 Gold By the End of December, Silver to Test $50

Ben Davies has been remarkably accurate in his short term calls for gold and silver over the past 2 years.
Just a few short weeks ago, when gold was trading in the low $1500's, Davies made a call that gold would break $2,000 by the end of 2011.
Fast forward several weeks, and its hard to believe gold won't hit $2,000 by the end of August or September, much less by the end of the year (which means that perhaps a temporary correction is closer than most believe).
Davies today fine tuned his 2011 gold call, stating he expects gold to reach $2,100 by the end of December after first correction to $1675.

Not to entirely disagree with Davies, but our gut feels like gold wants to run to $2,000 here.
It will be interesting to see whether gold undergoes any sort of significant correction at $2,000.
The Doc expects a major battle at $2,000 for several reasons. 
First, $2,000 is a significant psychological number, much like $1,000 was.  While it may not take 4 attempts to clear $2,000, expect the cartel to put up a fierce resistance at $2,000, as once the $2k level is cleared gold will target $2,500, then $5,000, then Alf Fields'/ Jim Sinclair's numbers.
Davies also discusses the current suppression of silver by the cartel, and the fact that silver is rapidly throwing off its industrial shackles and is behaving as a monetary asset, something we have stressed repeatedly here on SilverDoctors.

Three days ago we did feel that silver was being held back by the systemic risk that was prescient.  We moved to a full weighting in silver by selling some gold and moving more funds into silver.  Watching the price action in silver the last three days it is quite obvious to me that someone is trying to hold the price of silver down.  As I said we bought some silver and it is holding very well.

Despite the near $6 selloff in oil today, silver is trading up over 50 cents on the day.  It feels as though silver is throwing off its industrial shackles and is performing as a monetary asset.  Each bounce that we get in the equity markets will serve to underpin silver.  I believe this is setting up for silver to test the $50 high over the next couple of months.

Logically it doesn’t seem like gold will have a drawdown but I am looking for a pullback to the $1,675 level from here.  In order for that to be facilitated gold would need to close under $1,800 by the end of the week.  Because the gold/silver spread has widened dramatically, I actually believe that silver can trade higher while gold is experiencing some weakness.  Silver will resist being pulled lower and each time gold bounces, silver will be released higher.
We are looking for the gold price to hit $2,100 by the end of December and then we will have affirmative action from the authorities.

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