From Shenandoah
1. THE SAUDI RING OF FIRE
The map below does not do this crisis justice. Each flame in each nation represents a nation either in conflict, revolution, experiencing demonstrations, or political confrontation. The documentation of so many of these conflicts have been discussed across the spectrum of the media but there is a thread which ties this together and should cause great concern within our State Department and Pentagon.
While many view this as just another flare up in a foreign land there are some key factors to consider with the strategic situation and Saudi Arabia’s being surrounded by conflicts around it’s immediate sphere of influence. The Saudi military is incapable of invading or sending troops into all of these nations that are on fire. There is no feasible way that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia could possibly intervene in all of them so the process of “picking and choosing” will begin based primarily on tribal and political preferences which will give them a buffer against the Iranian regime.
Thus the “ring of fire” created by those powers wishing to diminish their influence has succeeded and they are nothing more than an impotent giant forced to extinguish what fires they may and of course, attempting to contain the damage internally while preserving the monarchy. The internal problems stirred by the Shi’ite movement awakening, probably with some assistance from Iran shall force the Kingdom’s internal police and military to remain near the major cities to quell dissent also, thus keeping them out of Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, and other nations should the violence erupt to greater levels. In the end, if it means a lasting peace, the House of Saud will likely realign their interests to preserve their Wahhabi missionary movements around the world and seek an alliance with China and Russia.
2. IRAQ IS IN SHAMBLES
The Iraqi central government has demonstrated repeatedly that it learned corruption from the best which makes one wonder if they went to Democratic National Committee leadership conferences for their management skills. The Kurds are embroiled in repeated protests with the radical PKK (Workers Party of Kurdistan) picking up some support for their efforts to expand the Kurdish nation back into Turkey and Iran despite numerous military defeats. The Kurdish leadership has sent the Peshmerga into Kirkuk as a play to seize control of the oil fields in direct conflict with the Sunni majority. Meanwhile the wanton slaughter by Sunni terror squads of the Assyrians continues while U.S. troops stand idly by, unable to help the Christian minorities under orders from Washington. In the Southern regions of country the Iranians have stirred up the Shiite minority with protests throughout the region and numerous confrontations recently in Basra.
This will not end well once United States forces have exited the country. The last chopper will depart the embassy rooftop sometime in the next few years as another experiment in “nation building” goes up in flames.
3. NO PEACE IN NORTH AFRICA
If anyone believes that Tunisia is a resolved situation then they have not been paying attention. From Mauritania to Morocco, to Egypt and Djibouti, the entire region is in flames, while our inept State Department can only offer educated guesses as to which nation will go up in flames next.
4. SYRIA’S DANGEROUS DOMESTIC DISARRAY
The recent riots and protests in Syria are only a taste of what is to come. The problem is that the unpredictable nature of the Assad regime might mean an abdication in favor of an Islamist dictator or his decision to stand his ground with Russian and Iranian support and just engage in wholesale slaughter as his father did, challenging the conventional wisdom of the American administration. There is little chance of the Obama State Department engaging in such a flight of fancy attacking Syria as that would embroil more than just that one nation and create an even greater, more permanent level of instability as well as over stretching our forces to such a degree that their effectiveness would come into question.
5. LEBANON IS NEXT TO IMPLODE
Even though the protests and minor incidents of violence in Lebanon have yet to reach the American mainstream media, they are occurring and that should be a sign of trouble to come. The Hezbollah movement is quietly marking time by reinforcing their positions, creating arms caches throughout the nation in anticipation of the almost guaranteed conflict about to arise with Israel. If Syria goes up in flames, Lebanon will follow with Iran and Israel both playing pivotal roles.
6. THE COMING WAR IN GAZA
Since I do not believe in coincidence, I shall let the two headlines from March 19, 2011 speak for themselves:
Allies Open Air Assault on Qaddafi’s Forces in Libya
(N.Y. Times)Southern Israel bombarded with over 50 rockets from Gaza
(Haaretz)This is no coincidence. Last week was the most eventful week in Israeli and Middle East history as it has opened the door for a potential, I repeat, potential, termination of the Egyptian-Israeli peace accords and the terrorists of Hamas understand this. After the Egyptian military seized power the Muslim Brotherhood accelerated their community organizing front and used their influence on the clergy to assure a rousing victory for the Constitutional reforms proposed last week thus solidifying their ability to position numerous candidates into power in the next civilian government. Add this uncertainty in Cairo with a promised retaliation by the Israeli government against the terrorist cells in Gaza and start to contemplate the results.
The invasion of Gaza, which I project could occur as early as 1.a.m. Tel Aviv time on Sunday morning (UTC +2) would probably look something like the map below with a combination of amphibious and armored thrusts across the entire portion of Gaza, enveloping and overwhelming the defenses of Hamas.
The invasion will not be ignored by the Egyptian people however. While the military might welcome the removal of this destabilizing factor in the region, the younger officers looking to make a name for themselves who have strong allegiances to the Muslim Brotherhood may well demand retaliation or direct confrontation in the name of the Islamic religion. While this might not seem logical to the average American, on the ground in that nation it is a matter of honor and Israel is keenly aware of this fact. The elder officers who look to keep whatever booty was awarded to them via decades of internalized corruption and U.S. tribute will do whatever they can to avoid a war with Israel. However the street will erupt in even larger protests should video and pictures of Israeli shelling killing civilians, which mysteriously always seem to find their way to the front pages of U.S. newspapers, end up displayed across the Arab world.
Thus if Egypt faces another internal revolution, this time driven by their hatred of Israel, the military may well deploy along the border with Gaza and then the world is only one erroneous action away from a major Middle East war erupting.
7. TOURISTS OR PEACEKEEPERS?
The new stories most Americans are ignoring may come back to haunt them. If the Egyptian people erupt, then the threat of a new conflict will immediately push the NATO managed Libyan air exercises to the back pages. The ideals of Samantha Powers, as espoused via her Pulitzer Prize winning book “A Problem From Hell: America and the Age of Genocide,” and her public appearances indicates a predisposition to engaging in more humanitarian escapades to protect civilians throughout the world and prevent further incidents like Rwanda and Bosnia from ever happening again. By using the internationalist organ, the United Nations, the cover of humanitarianism gives the administration a blank check to intervene unconstitutionally and with extreme prejudice as long as our supply of Tomahawk missiles or manpower reserves holds up.
Two more stories from the Navy Times, ignored by the mainstream but focused on by my program tonight tend to compliment a theory I am proposing tonight:
Navy, Marines keeping watch on Libya unrest
Bataan ARG heads to Libya duty in Med
These stories are from a two week period spread apart, one before the action, one after. The President of the United States stated clearly there would be no engagement of U.S. ground forces in Libya thus the question must be asked:Why are we deploying three U.S. Marine Corps Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG’s) to the Mediterranean?
This is where Glenn Beck’s ideals about oil, Soros, and Samantha Powers start to make sense. Imagine what would occur should Israel complete the military operation that has been needed for several years now, proceeding with the eradication of Hamas in Gaza. The Egyptians would go nuts, the Arab world would march in the streets angry at the Israelis and their governments for failing to prevent the next “genocide” as it will be reported by Al-Jazeera and other instruments of that ilk. Then contemplate the Egyptian reaction I outlined above and a hostile United Nations with a pro-Palestinian U.S. government meeting to discuss the deployment of U.N. Peacekeepers into Gaza to stop the bloodshed.
What nation would Israel be forced to trust and has 3 ARG’s in the region already could be asked to deploy fully armed and ready to deal with any conflict if necessary?
That’s right, the United States Marine Corps under the auspices of the United Nations. This would be the final straw for Israel and in my opinion a historic turning point where our policy had always been to allow the Israelis to deal with direct threats to their nation as they needed to as a sovereign nation would. The consequences of a U.S. deployment there to keep the Egyptians and Israelis apart would invite Al Queda or Hezbollah attacks similar to the 1981 barracks bombing in Lebanon and change the balance of power in the Middle East for many decades to come. The thought of the Obama administration that this would be a popular move in the Arab street would soon reverse as our troops are named as occupiers and that is when the danger begins for our boys.
In the mean time, I reflect on the Biblical writings of Zechariah 14 as I type this. Is this truly that moment in human history that so many various religious sects and believers, be they Christian, Jew, or Muslim been waiting for, or an attempt by man to trigger a return of a Messiah who in the end is the false Messiah?
Pray for peace my friends, this could be a long sixty to ninety days ahead of us.
