Sunday, February 5, 2012

Next Week's Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar for 2/5/12-2/11/12 compliments of ForexPros.  Key dates as I see them in bold. MOPE explanations/expectations below.

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Time Cur. Event Forecast Previous
Sunday, February 05
19:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% 0.0%
Monday, February 06
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) 0.5% -4.8%
10:00 CAD Ivey PMI 57.8 63.5
12:15 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
16:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ) 0.5% 0.5%
22:30 AUD Interest Rate Decision 4.00% 4.25%
22:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Tuesday, February 07
08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) 0.8% -3.6%
10:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 2.40%
Wednesday, February 08
01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.1%
08:15 CAD Housing Starts 192K 200K
13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction 1.900%
16:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) 0.4% 0.2%
16:45 NZD Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.6%
Thursday, February 09
01:45 CHF SECO Consumer Climate -22 -24
04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% -0.6%
04:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.3% -0.2%
04:30 GBP Trade Balance -8.4B -8.6B
07:00 GBP Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
07:45 EUR Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 388K 367K
08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3525K 3437K
10:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.1%
19:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Friday, February 10
02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) -0.4% -0.4%
03:15 CHF CPI (MoM) -0.3% -0.2%
04:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) 0.4% -0.6%
08:30 CAD Trade Balance 0.7B 1.1B
08:30 USD Trade Balance -48.4B -47.8B
09:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexP 74.3 75.0
12:30 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -65.2B -86.0B

The Bernanke on Tuesday is testifying on the economic outlook and on the Federal deficit.  On Friday, Bernank will be talking about the bustling housing market at the 2012 National Association of Homebuilders International Builders show.

Dallas Fed's Fisher:QE3 Not Justified,Will Complicate Exit Strategy

AUSTIN, Texas (MNI) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said Thursday night he would oppose a third round of quantitative easing, calling it unnecessary, doubting its efficacy and warning it would "complicate" the Fed's eventual "exit" from a balance sheet approaching $3 trillion.
Fisher said he would not want to ease monetary policy further unless there was a real deflation threat.
Fisher, talking to reporters following a speech to the Austin Headliners Club, called recent growth in loan demand and actual lending a "good sign" but called it "nascent" and not a trigger for raising the rate of interest the Fed's pays banks on excess reserves (the IOER).
Fisher, who is not a voting member of the Fed's policymaking Federal Open Market Committee this year but who did contribute to the FOMC's new three-year funds rate forecasts last week, made clear he opposed the new "forward guidance" on the path of the federal funds rate.  Read More>> 

 There's what Fisher says.....and there's what is going to happen. Fisher appears to be prepared from Doc's article this morning, Dallas Fed Head Fisher Owns $1 Million in GLD, 7,000 Acres of Land.


Treasuries Fall as Job Gains Cast Doubt on Fed’s Low-Rate Policy

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries declined after the U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell to the lease in three years, raising skepticism about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s extended low-rate policy and limiting demand for the safety of U.S. debt.
Yields on 30-year bonds reached the highest level in more than a week as the economy added more jobs in January than forecast, easing concern Europe’s debt crisis is stalling the U.S. recovery. The difference between yields on 10-year notes and the inflation-indexed securities of the same maturity touched the widest since October. The U.S. will sell $72 billion in notes and bonds next week.  Read More>>

EU Central Bank 'to hold rates steady this week'

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank, after two rate cuts and a series of unprecedented liquidity measures, will hold its fire this month, as it assesses the impact of those previous measures, analysts say.
The recent raft of economic data, notably in Europe's economic powerhouse Germany, has been surprisingly positive, so the bank at its meeting on Thursday looks set to wait and see how its past moves to prevent a credit crunch and boost the economy in the 17 countries are actually panning out.
In December, the ECB brought eurozone borrowing costs back down to their previous historical low of 1.0 percent, effectively reversing last year's two earlier rate hikes.
On top of that, it offered banks in the region an unlimited pool of liquidity by loosening collateral rules, cutting the minimum reserve ratio and launching new three-year loans at super-cheap rates.
Read More>>