Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Silver Open Interest Plunges Below 100,000

Last week's COT report indicated that the commercials reduced their short silver positions by nearly 23 million ounces in the week ending 11/22, and OI had plunged to 108k contracts. 
Clearly the commercials were preparing for this week's surge thanks to The Fed's European bailout/QE.
Open interest has since declined nearly another 10,000 contracts, or 50 million ounces in the week since the COT data was updated.  OI has now broken below 100,000, at 99,053.
The major volume has now shifted from the Dec contract to the Mar 12 contract, and silver is trading in contango from the spot contract through the Dec 13 contract, entering backwardation from the July 14 contract on out
Backwardation has tightened considerably since we last examined it, with a maximum discount of .50 for the July 2016 contract vs. spot.



Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (FINAL)
Trade Date: 11/29/2011
Month
Open
High
Low
Last
Change
Settle
Estimated
Volume
Prior Day
Open Interest
DEC 11
32.000
32.145
31.440
31.880
-.308
31.853
16,516
6,068
JAN 12
32.060
32.170
31.545
31.940
-.313
31.873
766
624
FEB 12
-
-
-
-
-
31.911
-
-
MAR 12
32.120
32.240
31.530
31.990
-.292
31.950
34,463
52,692
MAY 12
32.150
32.225
31.695
32.010
-.292
31.986
847
5,396
JLY 12
32.120
32.240
31.990
32.095
-.292
32.021
156
2,670
SEP 12
32.095
32.095
32.095
32.095
-.292
32.052
73
1,898
DEC 12
32.255
32.290
31.820
32.185
-.291
32.091
295
13,680
JAN 13
-
-
-
-
-.288
32.080
-
11
MAR 13
-
-
-
-
-.286
32.058
3
1,124
MAY 13
-
-
-
-
-.286
32.006
-
396
JLY 13
-
-
-
-
-.286
31.973
5
3,169
SEP 13
-
-
-
-
-.286
31.924
-
155
DEC 13
31.830
31.830
31.830
31.830
-.299
31.874
276
8,307
JLY 14
Backwardation-
Starts-
Here-
>-
-.303
31.734
-
721
DEC 14
-
-
-
-
-.303
31.655
-
1,376
JLY 15
-
-
-
-
-.288
31.455
-
190
DEC 15
-
-
-
-
-.290
31.353
42
548
JLY 16
31.250
31.250
31.250
31.250
-.198
31.250
7
28
Total
53,449
99,053