Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Richard Russell: BTGD! (Gold Dip)

Richard Russell echos the sentiments of the silver bears: BTFD! Until the time you overhear numerous conversations and "tips" weekly at your gym about buying gold and silver and related stocks, don't even think about losing a grip on your physical metal positions.

From KingWorldNews
“In all my years of investing, I have never seen an asset hit record highs, as gold has done recently, with less fanfare. There were no front page stories in the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times, heralding the new milestones." Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist and a member of Barron's Roundtable.”
After quoting Hickey, Russell continued:

“Gold is another story. The daily chart (above) shows gold breaking out of a head-and-shoulders bottom to the upside. Course of action -- sit with your precious metal position. Buy more on any pull-back toward the line of support (line of support is now at about 1450).

Russell comments on gold and silver -- Because the precious metals are in a massive bull market, many eager amateur analysts are now trying their hand on calling "the top." This is a hopeless and ridiculous endeavor during a powerful bull market. Much of this top-calling is done by an anti-gold element: Those who dislike gold or those who have missed the entire gold bull market. My advice all along has been to "ride the bull" and to ignore the "top callers." 

The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice -- stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying.

Even then, what would you sell you gold for -- more fiat paper? We'll talk about selling precious metals when the time comes, which may be months or even years in the future.

Last, we turn to the Dollar Index...The Index is perched precariously above the critical 75 level with MACD in the process of turning negative. 

A much longer view of the Dollar Index....Major critical support comes in at 70.69. I would think anything below 70 might set off a dollar panic.”

Gold has broken out above the $1,450 area and as Russell says, generally you want to buy on pullbacks toward that level.  The public might be too skittish to do that, but the professionals certainly will.  If that level holds, it will provide the base for the next leg higher in gold.  For the non-professionals, simply accumulate each month on the same day and dollar cost average your purchases over time.  This is a huge secular bull market, enjoy the ride.  As far as the US dollar goes, God help us when we finally break 70 on that index