Thursday, July 14, 2011

Silver Backwardation Increases 36% in Past Week

Silver backwardation has increased since last week's update, even though silver has risen from $37 to $38.50 during the same time period.
Silver remains in contango from front months through July 2012 contracts, and is still trading in backwardation from Sept 2012 on out. (Newer readers can read our explanation on backwardation vs. contango here)
The Dec 2015 contract is now trading at a $0.59 discount to front months, up 36% from $0.439 last week.
Notice that open interest has declined all the way to 112,795, from highs above 145,000 before the May smash-down. 
Silver has plenty of room to run, and it looks like the next up-leg is just beginning.

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (FINAL)Trade Date: 07/13/2011
Month



Change Settle Estimated
Volume
Prior Day
Open Interest
JLY 11



+2.519 38.148 384 697
AUG 11



+2.519 38.148 879 423
SEP 11



+2.517 38.151 89,632 57,397
DEC 11



+2.518 38.168 9,248 26,875
JAN 12



+2.518 38.170 26 135
MAR 12



+2.522 38.164 91 5,188
MAY 12



+2.522 38.154 23 1,529
JLY 12



+2.522 38.148 62 1,734
SEP 12



+2.525 38.136 4 202
DEC 12



+2.529 38.115 49 7,761
JAN 13



+2.529 38.097 - 1
MAR 13



+2.530 38.066 208 51
MAY 13



+2.531 38.035 - -
JLY 13



+2.532 38.002 1 2,212
DEC 13



+2.545 37.945 55 6,640
JLY 14



+2.565 37.870 1 222
DEC 14



+2.579 37.799 10 1,135
JLY 15



+2.579 37.639 - 161
DEC 15



+2.579 37.559 3 432
Total





100,676 112,795