When asked about silver’s current supply and demand fundamentals, David replied:
Industrial demand for silver has been increasing rather significantly over the last decade or so. If you go back a decade or so the total demand on the industrial side was about 38% of the market, and if you look at more recent studies, it’s grown to about 54% of the market. During that 10 year time-frame the silver production from mining has gone up significantly, and that’s primarily been driven by the commodities boom overall, and that’s primarily been driven by China. That means that the demand side on industrial uses has increased.
As far as the investment demand goes, on the supply side, it’s increased from the year 2000 to present. Investment demand has been steadily increasing over time. If you look at the supply/demand from 1990 to 2006 we were in a structural deficit. That was about 100 million ounces a year for 15 years, so roughly 1.5 billion ounces of silver were depleted from 1990 to 2006. At that time, the production curve crossed over the demand side (counting recycling), so there’s now actually more supply than there is demand, and that’s based on studies from the Silver Institute and the CPM Group. So the low point in the total supply of silver was roughly in 2006, and the supply at that point was probably only 500 million ounces, and today we’ve probably got double that at least (and this is in only commercial bar form that I’m talking about now, I’m talking about 1,000 ounce bars- in that form only). We were at 500 million ounces in 2006, today we’re probably at a billion ounces.
The investment demand has increased steadily from that point- in April of 2006 the SLV was started, the first major ETF for silver. At inception it held 130 million ounces at the offset, now we’re about triple that at 300 million ounces in the SLV- purportedly the largest holder of silver in industrial form (in 1,000 ounce bars).
The demand in all the ETFs, holding companies, anything that holds silver in 1,000 ounce bars as an investment, has gone roughly from that point in April 2006 till now to about 800 million ounces that we can see in the public domain.
So the supply side has increased, but the demand side has increased. The demand side for the retail portion of the market, which is best looked at in the silver eagles (or silver liberties as they’re actually named) has been increasing substantially over the past few years. When you look at the inception of the program in 1986 through about 3 years ago the average amount of off-take was about 10 million ounces. Then a few years back it doubled to 20 million ounces, then last year it was up to 40 million ounces. Now we are seeing it probably wane off a bit. These markets are volatile as we all know, and I think right now we’re in a flat period, a consolidation period, and I believe that a lot of people that are really savvy about the silver and gold story are in. In other words, they bought their silver over the last few years, at some point from the beginning of the bull market till now. They’re in the market ,and they really aren’t in a position to add to their holdings, or if they are, they’re waiting for a pull-back, and there aren’t a lot of new buyers in the market right now on the retail side.
On the professional side, the money managers, professional managers, hedge fund types, they’re slowly coming back to the market. What’s interesting is that they’re coming into the market primarily on the physical side of the market- truly the physical side of the market- buying monster boxes or commercial bars for investment.
Bottom line, I think we still have a consolidation period ahead of us, I think we have several months, probably until September-October of this year before really we break through this consolidation level and get silver up to the $40 level or so. I could be wrong obviously, but I think that a lot of the people that are in the silver market and the gold market- and they pretty much track together, there’s an 84% correlation between the two metals, so the argument that silver is a lot different than gold is erroneous. It isn’t exactly like gold, but it’s very, very close.
Regardless, I think you’re going to see more consolidation and more people that are in the scare you out or the wear you out mode.
The scare you out mode is when you get these huge sell-offs like we saw on the 29th of February in the silver market. That scares a lot of people, and a lot of people that are waiting on the sidelines for a pull-back see that pull-back, and although a week before told themselves that if they ever saw a pull-back like that they’d jump in, they don’t. They get scared and they don’t get into the market. Or, they get worn out. They’ve been holding silver let’s say above the $30 level- let’s say they’re holding it around $35, which is approximately where we are now, and they’ve watched it run to $48 and they’ve watched it come down to $26, and they’ve watched it come back and consolidate around the $30-$35 level, and they’re worn out! They’re saying silver isn’t as good a thing as I thought it was, and I’ve been holding it now for month after month after month and it doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, and I’ve got this other opportunity, so they sell their silver and they’re out of the market. They’re probably correct for a few more months, but then of course once it starts to go back up and hits the $35, $40, $45, $50 level, and they wish they would have held. That’s how markets work. That’s the psychology behind it.
Don't miss The Doc's full audio interview with silver analyst David Morgan, which will be available soon.
64 comments:
I just can't be bothered to read these interviews anymore. It's the same old story. Huge demand. Big Players. Great shortages. Comex crashing etc. etc. etc.
The fact of the matter is the price has been going up and down like a yoyo on a small piece of string for over a year.
If you bought Silver around the week of 15 Feb 2011 then the price now, after a year, is roughly the same.
DurIng that time all the gurus like Morgan have been huffing and puffing about Silver going to the Moon.
It couldn't be because they are trying to sell Silver and make a profit.......naaah.
"Bottom line, I think we still have a consolidation period ahead of us, I think we have several months, probably until September-October of this year"
Yeah, the 30+ year cup n' handle!
Obviously he means that the cartel will successfully manage the market in its present trading range for an undetermined amount of time. Unless we get a black swan event that changes those fundamentals. Industrial and investment demand don't mean much now.
George Silver, you are an ass. Bitter because your get rich quick on silver sceem has failed. How much did you leverage on credit cards George? To bad so sad. You should have dis more homework before you leveraged the wifes farm.
Check into the "fact" that metals are manipulated. Admitt you made a huge mistake and get back to us with your repentance.
Or better still, just sell your phisical metal and move on.
@Anon 11:56
What a complete idiot you are! How does it feel when you are called names stupid?
I bought a stack(100's of Kilos) of Silver when it was $200 a Kilo so I don't care and I certainly am not worried about silly remarks from people who are "anonymous"
I have no debts. I own properties in two countries. My wife doesn't have a farm to sell.
I have always done my homework throughout life. I have travelled to most countries in the World and have learnt a lot of things that people like you can only dream of.
Oh by the way I'm actually rich even without the Silver and Gold.
This is my hypothesis on how banks are “delivering” when no gold or silver leaves the dealer:
The name of the game is to:
1. Preserve Physical Metal at all costs
2. Inflict Mass Damage on Longs.
3. Use the Price as a tool to accomplish #1 and #2
Through high frequency trading at 75,000 trades per second the bankers have 100% complete control of the Silver price. The price is used a tool to discourage longs from taking delivery, preserve physical metal and inflict mass damage on longs. The bankers do not want to take the price too low because then us stackers can take too much physical off the market at the low price.
The bankers do not want to let the price too high because it makes the dollar look weak, rewards us stackers and mining shares owners, etc, etc, etc.
The bankers seem to be happiest right now with the price between $30 and $35.
Several hundred or even thousands of years ago, the bankers discovered the power of money manipulation and fractional reserve lending. Everything that the bankers do is at least some sort of 10:1 fractional reserve scheme. When the bankers get overconfident they can even stack two 10:1 schemes on top of one another creating a 100:1 fractional reserve scheme. Some derivatives bets are even 1000:1 or more.
The delivery process:
The Comex inventory and delivery figures are mostly make believe.
The Comex inventory figures are at least a 10:1 fractional reserve scheme. So if the Comex claims they have 100 Million ounces of silver in the customer vaults and 10 Million in the dealer, they really have 10 Million in the customer and 1 Million in the dealer. This explains why they are so stingy about deliveries and often try to cash settle.
Cash Settlements are preferred because of rule #1, to preserve physical metal.
If a long stands for delivery the bankers will offer a small cash premium to accept cash and close out the contract.
If a long stands for delivery and refuses the cash offer but instructs the bankers to deliver to a vault inside the Comex system, then the bankers simply print the long a paper warehouse receipt and tell him that the metal has been transferred to his vault/account. Around the time that the new paper warehouse receipt gets printed the bankers withdraw a similar amount usually from the dealer. This amount gets re-deposited to the dealer a couple days later (SilverDoctors has documented this many times). There was no delivery, the movement of metal was simply a transfer between dealer vaults, but the movement of metal gives the illusion of a proper delivery. Because there was no real delivery, the amount that did not get properly delivered essentially gets added to the bankers naked short position. This is how the bankers have accumulated a 5 Billion ounce naked short Silver position.
If a long stands for delivery and refuses the cash offer and instructs the bankers to deliver to a vault outside of the Comex system, then this is when Blythe offers the large 80% cash premiums. These are the contracts that they wait until the end of the month to settle.
The Hunt brothers knew about this fraud, they stood for delivery and took the metal outside of the Comex system and the price went nutz!
Sure, George, sure.
A little thin skinned perhaps?
Gee, I wonder what would cause that, probably anon's accurate inventory.
Go lay down by your dish.
I'd change only 2 words in this post :
From : "They’re probably correct for a few more months, but then of course once it starts to go back up and hits the $35, $40, $45, $50 level, and they wish they would have held. "
To : "They’re probably correct for a few more YEARS, but then of course IF it starts to go back up and hits the $35, $40, $45, $50 level, and they wish they would have held."
With IFs and ONCEs, it's easy to sell the same propaganda again and again.
Regards.
So, Anon 12:18, what has to happen to cause the bankers to lose control of the silver price in your opinion? Giving silver the chance to find its true value.
Stop complaining. If it wasn't for the cartel manipulation, then the opportunity in silver would'nt even exist. If your an instant gratification junkie and want to try a get rich quick, then just go to Vegas, and gamble it to satisfy your need. It aint known as the Devils metal for nothing.
"If a long stands for delivery and refuses the cash offer and instructs the bankers to deliver to a vault outside of the Comex system, then this is when Blythe offers the large 80% cash premiums. "
Interesting post for once!
But then, how do you break the rule??!!
It seems 80% premium is quite satisfactory to get one's cah instead of silver.
Comex is still alive.
The con keeps living.
Do you guys have the power to make it change?
It seems maybe not, or maybe not until many many years to come, a black swan, or whatever.
Meanwhile, longs are just repeatedly getting crushed.
Mr Morgan.
If you read this post I have a few questions.
About 3 weeks ago I ventured a hypothesis that silver will go into a shortage by August and for several reasons.
My questions are as follows:
1. The US produces about 250 million ounces and that is declining. We could experience shortages while the world at large has adequate supplies. Do you see a country-specific shortage in the US due to the fact that we use more than we produce?
2. China and India each bought about 110 million ounces each in 2011 and plan to buy an equal amount in 2012. This represents about 25% of total world production. How does this factor into shortages this year?
3. Do you see hundreds of thousands of small stackers buying 100 ounces or so each and holding it in personal physical possession having an influence and effect on this annual world wide shortage, or potential for shortage?
4. How will mining inefficiencies, the EPA regulations and nationalization of mines affect supplies this year and next?
silver price Jan 2001 $5 an ounce
silver price Jan 2012 $35 an ounce
Holding long is 10 years. It might be best if we think 5-10 years when we stackers commit to being long on silver purchases. IMO
The entire inventory, delivery, all the facts and figures from the Comex could be fairytales. There is no way to go in and audit all of this in real-time. Books are cooked, surprise surprise.
All we can do is have faith that something is worth more than nothing. That's pretty easy for me to do.
If they are lying about their actual holdings this ruse could fail suddenly. If they were at the edge of a precipice, would they admit it and touch off a firestorm for themselves?
No way. What they would do is redouble their efforts to shear you of your stack. Exactly what you see going on right now. The only tactic that will work on me is a higher price. They continue to use the low-price shakeout method because they count on your greed, your unwillingness to wait for profits. Let them eat static. Hold and you torture them some more. Or sell and slink off a loser. That's what they are attempting. To scare you off. Simple as that.
I have some I bought for 9.80 an oz that I could turn for nice profits, but that isn't what I'm about. I am trying to keep some savings safe from inflation, and at that, it's doing a pretty good job. It is frustrating to go through these times, but we've been here before. If you are still working, count yourself fortunate. If you hold silver, even more so.
-conax
"With IFs and ONCEs, it's easy to sell the same propaganda again and again."
No, nothing like this is necessary for the propaganda to be effective. Just look at what the mainstream media does. Their propaganda is just coming out and telling a lie, and the bigger the lie, the more people think it's true.
Promoting the ownership of silver and gold is not propaganda (despite what some would have people believe). The opposite is true. Promoting that silver and gold are bad investments is pure propaganda, because it is designed to keep debt-based fiat paper 'money' alive. Fiat paper 'money' is bad money, and the longer the world hangs on to the use of bad money, the worse the consequences become. The people who already see through this are already taking precautionary steps, and telling others about it.
If someone chooses not to heed the warnings, that is their prerogative. But that does not mean they will not suffer the consequences of their decisions.
George Silver,
Why argue with a bunch of anonymous people who lap up every word that fuckface jim willie, David Morgan, and other subscription services offer... They always provide hope to the majority of retail investors.. Don't worry the far east buyers are holding the price up.. the Far east buyers have a floor under silver and gold... Jim willie was notorious for using the far east hypothesis saying gold will never gold below 1600 because of far east buying being too strong... SURE ENOUGH, gold goes below 1600 and now willie changes his tune to being that the far east buyers WANT the price to stay low, and once they get their fill then the will let it go up a few hundred dollars... REALLY, why would they want the price to go up a few hundred.. why not just keep the price low so that you can get your fill at that cheaper price.... what a moron.
Dave morgan, an idiot savante.. who charges an arm and a leg for bullshit news... DOnt worry people we are still consolidating.. ya, no shit buddy. wonder what you said during the last run when you still had your investors in silver and gold and the peak happened... don't worry its consolidating.... for about 20 years!!!!
YOu see George, the majority of these people think that if the economy collapses they will be kings with their gold and silver... The only type of people that think this are two: those who never made it in life and became successful:, 2: those with a grudge against society and want others to feel their pain. So why argue with them... ? They will eventually realize the truth that no man, but only god knows the future.. The rest of these palm readers will sell you snake oil for your hard earned money...
Jim willie.. what a fucking moron. AGZIIK you said his info is important in his news letters.. Thats a complete lie... I use to subscribe to him and i can tell you that his info is mere rehashing of other peoples works!!! Its cut and past and summaries of other articles... Then he adds his own conjectures to them... ALso, how reliable is this guy when he cited Turd Ferguson as a reason for silver blasting off last year!!!!!! Not reliable at all. This is the same guy who said there will be a gold back nordic currency in JUNE OF 2011 according to his sources... YOu all think jim is living in costa rica because he is hiding for his life... You're wrong. He lives there because the cost of living is dirt cheap yet he charges you 200 dollars for his subscription.. RENT doesn't even cost that much a month in costa rica!
ILUVPMS You seem to know so much more than every one in the PM universe including people who are clearly more intelligent than you, maybe you should start a blog.
Maybe we would read it.
If you paid us.
Maybe
Of course, we get to listens to your screeds with no money changing hands so that must be our punishment for original sin.
note to I luv pms
My God is spelled with a capital G
And yours is spelled with a lower case g
I love PMS
How much does jp morgan pay you?
You are no doubt a planted paid troll from hell.
AGXIIK,
Just a couple of points on your questions:
1. The US only produces about 50 Million ounces a year not 250 Million.
See: http://www.indexmundi.com/minerals/?product=silver&graph=production
4. The mines and scrap seem to be able to produce everything that is needed for supply.
See: http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/
@ilovepms @george as an avid reader of this blog, your comments whilst provocative and inflammatory, are most thought provoking and delightfly refreshing. Any reasoned and objective analysis needs to be balanced and yours views certainly help in this regard.
Other commentators would do well to argue the points rather than attacking the character of individuals.
Regards,
Walker.
George Silver,
I think you made a very good point about the newsletter writers and their constant chorus of up, up, and away.
I used to hang on their every word but now take them with a grain of salt, storing everything they say on the shelf and weighing it in light of price action over time and the COT movements and daily bulletins from the CME.
Things just don't add up!
However, what will drive price up, over time, is the cost of mining. No one can get around that. The facts are that all deposits are diminishing in ore grades so it takes more CAPEX to mine an ounce than it did 5 years ago.
But right now, silver price is way ahead of current CAPEX and profit margins of 5 years ago.
So that means there is a gap between $15 or lower and the current price of $32.
Somewhere in there the truth lies in wait of reality!
People can bash me for always point out the flaws in the majority of these paid newsletters... All i know is that gold and silver will be going up in the future. I don't know when and how but i do know that the fundamentals will help them out. Thetruth2564 I'm glad you opened up your eyes and realized what type of a business these so called analysts are in. They just want to make money for themselves. The economies of scale are so great in the news paper industry and with the given volatility a lot of retail investors will pay to read garbage as long as it gives hope. Think of it this way. JIM willie only needs to publish his letter twice a month. Lets say he has over 10000 subscribers, rollover of course. thats over 200K a year!!! just from his nonsense news letter. Have you guys ever thought of that... IT goes with a bunch of them. They charge a "merely" 30 buck a month.. thats 360 a year...and there we have 360K a year...
Its a business open up your eyes.. They love to keep the drum beat rolling - its their bread and butter.
Geez... i wonder how far 200K a year will get you in costa rica... on yes... and its tax free since he's an expat.. isn't that right JIM WILLIE.. 200 tax free is close to 400K gross.. who here makes that much money writing nonsense around here... I thought so, none of you.
If any of you were at all uptight as a result of this weeks performance in silver, you need to exit your postion post haste. This is a bigboy metal. Not a little girl get rich quick position.
And George and PMS. You two should get a room. What a fricken joke you two are, sheees.
LOL
ILUVPMS,
I checked on Willie's newsletter cost the other day and it was $110 for 6 months.
If $220 a year then $220 * 10,000 subscribers as you guessed = a cool $2,200,000 a year!
Not a bad haul, ya think? ;)
I would not be surprised if he has 10,000 as widely published as he is...
I'll just keep stacking. No time for arguing now. Make haste a ready yourselves for all situations. Conax has made the most appropriate comments on this particular story. There are some very good differing views here but, you would all be wise to listen to what Conax is saying. Just my opinion.
2 OZ.
Wow! Great comments coming from both sides. IMO both sides have their points. The only thing I would like to see, as "Walker" pointed out, that folks wouldn't be so damn nasty.
Now don't make me drink a bunch of Crown and start acting like Clint Eastwood. LOL @ myself.
These are exciting times, and I truely enjoy reading all of the comments. It has helped me be alittle more rounded, and do my due diligence.
Hang in there everyone....gotta go grill a couple of beautiful one inch thick "T" bones...it drives the neighbor's dog f-ing nuts!
nb
I've listened to many of the newsletter writers and almost NONE saw the 2007 Stock Market Crash nor that gold and silver would dive along with the market crash. Funny but true!
ILUVPMS
The reason I spend $220 a year for Willie is that he does the heavy lifting to gather data that I don't have time to acquire. For $220 a year, that is a great bargain and what's more, I like his material as you can see from my note attached to his post. He compresses vast amounts of data, puts his own opinions into that data and sells it. Good for him.
$200,000 is a nice income a year but not that much given how much work goes into processing this data. I've been in business for 20 yrs and rest assured, $200 does not go as far as it used to.
I probaly wouldn't do what Jim does for less than $500,000. To much brain damage and hard work for my tastes. I also subscribe to services that cost $300 a year and these folks have 100,000 subscribers. Are they worth it? Damn right.
I could not be able to get 1/10th of the info even if I worked hours a day to acquire it.
So when someone trashes the reasoning and data from a subscription they need to check their opinion at the door. No one cares what others think if the data they acquire works for their personal and specific purposes.
I have a question about the 80% premium paid in cash if you try to get phyzz delivery outside of the system. If this is true its big news. What is the source?
I don't know why people come to this site to insult or mouth off. If you don't agree with the logic, of holding silver or gold as money, or as a preservation of wealth, then don't take an interest in either.
Gold and Silver are real, relatively scarce, and are both desirable (precious). If you choose to buy either, then doing so means, you are diversifying into an asset, of commodity class, which may fluctuate greatly at time's/s, due to numerous factor's/s. If you feel that your investment hasn't performed adequately, then maybe you should think about investing in something else. A loss by defintion, is only incurred, when you sell at a reduced amount, relative to that paid, at time of aquisition.
Nobody knows for sure when precious metals will break out.(refering to silver in particular) Silver is the game changer, not gold. Once silver becomes a real issue, with regard to meeting supply, or its demand is such, that industry is aversely affected, by an extreme shortage, brought on by a culture of retention, or aquisition, due to a growing ideology of belief, that silver is equal to gold. (asset class) And by equal, it's widely accepted, as having a value, of no less than 1/16 of gold (historic/earthly relationship).
16 silver Oz = 1 gold Oz (conservative)
<=10 silver Oz = 1 gold Oz ( highly probable due to depletion)
The paper system or fiat instrument is failing, and requires constant monetary intervention, to keep it alive. The global economy is screwed, the US dollar is dying, and before long hyper inflation will come to the USA. If you're invested in real things, then at the very least you have something of relative worth/value, regardless of it be in silver or gold. Art is another very good investment, due to its desirability.
It's not about today, but rather tomorrow.... the future, and preparing for what's to come.
Keep stacking, "it's better to have it and not need it, than to need it, and not have it".
Wonderful thing being human aint it?
- self interest
- free will
- seperate realities
- free speech
- differing opinions
- fundemental beliefs
- critical thinking
- memory
- forethought
We certainly live in interesting times.
Could be right....could be wrong, but I'll keep stackin PMs when I can.
Thanks for ALL your opinions.
Crazy Canuck
Anon 5:18pm.. we don't insult holding pms. That is not what silvergeorge and I are talking about. We insult these paid subscriptions that beat the same war song of silver and gold going higher soon.. Did you know that the Aden sisters were proclaiming 8000 gold in the last run up.. wonder how well their subscribers did.
I still think investing should be an olympic sport.
Crazy Canuck
@George Silver b patient ,things does not change so quickly ,the win s waiting for PMs and fake financial system will be destroyed
iluv....so ur bitter because it took you many months (years?!) to finally figure out that you can get ALL of Jim and David's opinions for FREE all over the internet.
Do you pay for internet porn too!?
And agix.... ur wasting ur $, and w/ all that info you pay for, you have added very little to DOC'S SITE. I skim ur posts as fast as I can because they are long and repetitive(just like Jim and David's advice) and is the same ol same ol...manipulation blaa blaa Blythe bla bla jpm bla shortages blaBla to the moon very soon bla bla*...all you do is rehash former Doc articles...Every. Post...
You both need to quit....Pissing into the wind.
*hey look I just answered all 4 of ur important questions!
George silver I like debate but dude you were the first one to comment on this article and you didn't even read the damn thing. I can see why you got called an ass because you were assuming things about the article.
I've been taking a break lately from silver, I've had these nagging thoughts in my head about the blatant manipulation and have been wondering if it will ever end. The plus five margin hikes in less than a week and a half, the scary part of a roller coaster price drops. The government and system is so rotten to the core well it is what it is. I'm still not selling until my price point is reached which hasn't changed. I just need a fucking break, I've been into it for years. To me, it's healthy to have questions. I'm a realist, always have been and always will be. The price isn't even that important to me it's more along the lines of keeping my sanity. I'll still leave comments though and speak my mind.
As far as Morgan goes the guy really stuck his foot in his mouth by saying silver and gold are almost the same. I don't know what planet he gets his mailed delivered too but gold and silver really don't have a damn thing in common. The only thing gold has going for it is a possible monetary aspect and silver is capable of that too. That's the only thing they may have in common and that's where they end. And for all you people who talk crap about anonymous posters, it's not my fault I value my privacy. No way in hell am I creating a google account.
T
nice post, thanks
a lot of urine in the room.......,phew????
patience guys, patience...metals will rally soon. Technical analysis may or may not work here, nothing has change, Ben will print, we will eventually have some kind of military action with Iran, a devalue US dollar is needed to sustain economy growth, etc...when I read posts like ILUVPM and George I see frustration which is normal and that is what they want..they want to destroy this bull market but the manipulator know that there are a lot more of strong hands here and nothing really has and will not change. Is gold and silver make us rich?, I don't know, but that is a mistake to think that way. The real motive behind gold and silver is preserve our savings, if you think short term, then you will suffer, if you see things long term, then you know where things are headings. ILUVPMS and George if you don't have the guts and the skin to play this game short term, then I suggest to you both to find a different easy-make-money hobby...oh! they are playing 500 million on the lottery now, there you go!
anon 651.. im not bitter about the money.. just how these analysts call themselves analysts for providing chicken scratch work... utter bullshit. AGXIIK no offense, there really isn't much in willies writings Its all fantasy talk. And if you think 200 dollars can't go far in costa rica you must be kidding yourself.
People, the concept is very simple. Instead of saving money in the bank, save in PMs.
Mr. Silver said he paid $200 a kilo, then it looks like you are already well up. Poor saps like me are accumulating at a half to one kilo a month, the longer they keep the prices down the happier I am.
Just knowing that it is only a matter of time before the comex and LBMA blow up is the only thing we need to believe, it is inevitable after all.
Just keep the faith and keep saving in silver.
This is for long term security and to keep my savings "out" of the system.
In the meantime guys like Morgan keep me pumped and motivated to not give up. Personally, I hope prices stay at this level for a few more years.
I put about 10k of my kids savings into gold and silver. They won't need it for about another 10 years so it will serve them well then.
Long term thinking Bros!
Kilo!? WTF's a kilo?!
This is merica! We measure our silver in Pounds!
Lbz bitchez...
every dam time turd ferguson puts a bash blythe cartoon or posts some other bullshit against her the price of silver gets smashed. I emailed him a year ago and told him to stop because there was a recognizable pattern, and it still hold today.
email him and tell him to please stop.
thanks
I went fishing today to free my mind from PM's for a day, cleared my head & had a blast. Fish were bitin' good too! That's what some of you grouchy SOB's need to do. Go blow some stink off man, take a break & refresh your head. Take your kids or a kid along too. GODSPEED DOC CLUB
goin fishin tomarow. the wlley's arew snappin in the river. puttin on the ffed bag before the spawn.
good call holmes
Im happy to trade all my fiat for silver. No problem being all in. Ask yourself why the CFTC investigation has been dragging for 3.5 years when the 911 'investigation' was finished in 2years. Where there's smoke there's fire. As Maguire said, the manipulation is a national security issue to preserve the dollar. With all the money printing this has a finite life span. As others have said the elite are experts at wearing your ass down...don't fall down now.
"Just look at what the mainstream media does. Their propaganda is just coming out and telling a lie, and the bigger the lie, the more people think it's true."
I gotta disagree with this. It isn't the size of the lie that make people think that it is true. It IS the repetition of the lie, 24/7, for weeks or months at a time that causes these lies to take on a life of their own.
"If someone chooses not to heed the warnings, that is their prerogative. But that does not mean they will not suffer the consequences of their decisions."
Actually, it means that they WILL suffer the consequences of their inactions. ;-)
"Hang in there everyone....gotta go grill a couple of beautiful one inch thick "T" bones...it drives the neighbor's dog f-ing nuts!"
Lol, nb. When I toss a couple of nice NY strips on the grill and BBQ them up, it makes the neighbors go nuts! :-D
Ed_B
anon 11:56, agreed, george silver is a complete ass.
all he does is come here and bash every guest that appears here - why even bother to come to silverdoctors.com in that case?
yes he is bitter that his get rich quick scheme hasn't worked, and if someone states that silver will break $50/oz, then, by god, it had better do so on george silver's time frame, or else!
like a 3 year old throwing a tantrum.
and the worst part is he never has anything useful to contribute, just goes around bashing people.
and his comment starts:
" I just can't be bothered to read these interviews anymore."
ok, well there's a start, at least he ADMITS to ignorance, at least now he admits he doesn't know what he's talking about.
just wish you could block people like that on this site, that's one nice feature of tfmetalsreport.
I think george silver's point is that there is absolutely no new information to report and we just get the same info rehashed over and over. I too have quit reading as much as i used to and am in more of a holding pattern. Just some frustration bubbling up. People are tired of the endless lies/algo manipulation. How do you analyze officially sanctioned computer manipulation? You don't you just rant ala Ranting Andy.
I'd trade all the words from all these comments for just three pictures of Lauren Lyster in a silver bikini.
I am holding long term - 7+ years. A Florin was given the notional value of 20c in 1966 when we decimalised the currency and today it contains about $10 worth of silver and it's numistic value is at least double that again!
Does anyone get The Morgan Report? I only buy physical metals and figure i dont need someone to tell me how to buy metals...lol But I dont know much about the mining industry... So I am curious if anyone has used his services?
Nuclear attack on the London Olympics (27 July - 12 August 2012, and 2 days later, nuclear attack on NYC, WDC, LA, Portland, Toronto, Mexico City. Followed by integration of USA, Canada, Mexico, into the North American Union & martial law, with compulsory vaccine containing RFID chip. Of course, this will be followed by Global Economic Collapse. The markets are held up until then (only 3.5 months). This will all be blamed on Iran et al, to trigger WW3. Plus more .. This is the plan. If you want to enjoy your phyzz (ie. YOUR money), you need to understand this aswell.
Blackjack on the UK's Telegraph newspaper .. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/culturepicturegalleries/4220575/Blackjack.html
Olympics attack is all over the internet - incredible occult symbolism surrounding the Olympics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvFN1o8thKI
Rik Clay on Olympic symbolism and attack .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GASvbNcwBg&src_vid=zDipI5ttnps&annotation_id=annotation_799294&feature=iv
Nobody can predict how long the cartel will be able to push the PMs around. What I can definitely say is that the ferocity and frequency of the interventions has intensified dramatically over the past year. In fact, its taking on all the hallmarks of desperation.
@anon 11:12AM
Send me a PM.
= I will bet you one ounce gold nothing will happen at the olympics or anywhere else as you describe.
I can understand many folks frustration with silver. I had my client this week, after waiting months to hopefully reduce option decay, purchase a Jan. 2014 50 CALL in SLW. We made gains when silver corrected, and have made gains when it rallied, but also had some losses of course. He also owns physical so he does not just trade paper.
With LONG term options at a bargain, I thought SLW was a good play only if he went out to a minimum expiry of Jan. 2014. I think it has good potential, but I also told him upfront that i do expect silver itself to have at least one more severe drop to 20 - 22 before any major advance. Maybe so maybe no, but that is my analysis.
The point that is important to understand and why I can understand the frustration, is right now PM newsletter gurus are in a bind. Their hype has caught up with them, and they are now feeling the pressure form clients who thought it would never correct to these levels. I forecast gold correction of at least 300$ per oz. when everyone else said it could not happen when it was over 1,900. It did, and this rattled many gurus, same with silver...everyone said could not happen...it did.
Many of the guys that write the articles I have respect for, but I can see they are under stress because they are not paying attention to the game being played. Over the last few months, Jim Sinclair has had to hold his readers hands during golds correction and I know this caused much frustration with his readers as well as many other writers.
Bottom line is this: It does a client NO good to continue to "claim" gold will hit 4,500 and beyond like Sinclair states, which may well be 'true', but not for a long time unless an external factor such as rampant inflation hits sooner than expected, etc., and not be hidden any longer, but overall, what I try and do for a client is view long term, while also having them buy physical along with trading the paper.
So when these guys make their claims, and they rarely get it right, it is frustrating, so in the mid term, I cannot buy into these claims...many that make these claims are also selling metals, so of course they will continue to state "any day to the moon"! That of course is not prudent investing.
I think metals will surely rally up and above their all time highs...but I will not advise any one to "bank" on this any time this year at least without a supporting event or when the true economic picture becomes clearly evident to a majority, which it rarely does until it hits them in the head.
So near term to mid term, little change in metals...long term, reasonable to expect higher prices above last years highs, but even though we went out to Jan. 2014 in something like SLW, is no guarantee, it just puts the odds of a profitable paper trade more in the favor of the client while he is very much aware of the downside, max loss option price plus a few $$$ in fees. He got the option for about 2.80 or 280$ and the risk/reward is well worth 280$ cost to enter in my opinion along with much patience.
I do advise when one can afford it, to continue to buy physical of course, and paper as long as risk is well managed and known.
I think it would be wise to not allow many of these gurus to have too much influence over your decisions.
I can understand many folks frustration with silver. I had my client this week, after waiting months to hopefully reduce option decay, purchase a Jan. 2014 50 CALL in SLW. We made gains when silver corrected, and have made gains when it rallied, but also had some losses of course. He also owns physical so he does not just trade paper.
With LONG term options at a bargain, I thought SLW was a good play only if he went out to a minimum expiry of Jan. 2014. I think it has good potential, but I also told him upfront that i do expect silver itself to have at least one more severe drop to 20 - 22 before any major advance. Maybe so maybe no, but that is my analysis.
The point that is important to understand and why I can understand the frustration, is right now PM newsletter gurus are in a bind. Their hype has caught up with them, and they are now feeling the pressure form clients who thought it would never correct to these levels. I forecast gold correction of at least 300$ per oz. when everyone else said it could not happen when it was over 1,900. It did, and this rattled many gurus, same with silver...everyone said could not happen...it did.
Many of the guys that write the articles I have respect for, but I can see they are under stress because they are not paying attention to the game being played. Over the last few months, Jim Sinclair has had to hold his readers hands during golds correction and I know this caused much frustration with his readers as well as many other writers.
Bottom line is this: It does a client NO good to continue to "claim" gold will hit 4,500 and beyond like Sinclair states, which may well be 'true', but not for a long time unless an external factor such as rampant inflation hits sooner than expected, etc., and not be hidden any longer, but overall, what I try and do for a client is view long term, while also having them buy physical along with trading the paper.
So when these guys make their claims, and they rarely get it right, it is frustrating, so in the mid term, I cannot buy into these claims...many that make these claims are also selling metals, so of course they will continue to state "any day to the moon"! That of course is not prudent investing.
I think metals will surely rally up and above their all time highs...but I will not advise any one to "bank" on this any time this year at least without a supporting event or when the true economic picture becomes clearly evident to a majority, which it rarely does until it hits them in the head.
So near term to mid term, little change in metals...long term, reasonable to expect higher prices above last years highs, but even though we went out to Jan. 2014 in something like SLW, is no guarantee, it just puts the odds of a profitable paper trade more in the favor of the client while he is very much aware of the downside, max loss option price plus a few $$$ in fees. He got the option for about 2.80 or 280$ and the risk/reward is well worth 280$ cost to enter in my opinion along with much patience.
I do advise when one can afford it, to continue to buy physical of course, and paper as long as risk is well managed and known.
I think it would be wise to not allow many of these gurus to have too much influence over your decisions. Someone telling me silver will go above 100$ + per oz. may be right, but that is not going to happen any time soon in our current market condition, (Dow, SP, etc.), that is mostly artificial, and until 'easing' and those games are stopped, paper will continue to rise, i.e., equities, etc., artificially of course, due to pumping liquidity, but it is not real, and until the bubble bursts in equities, and they WILL, metals will stay contained by those playing the price game.
I concur with 1:46. However, when/if the spot goes to 22 or whatever, will you be able to buy it at that price? I see that kind of "consolidation" more for the paper market. I might not be able to buy @ "X" say below 30/oz, but I would like to see awhole lot of shorts being covered. I would also like to see the S 2 G ratio come down as well.
Unlike last summer when prices took off, we may very well see the typical "summer duldrums". It could prove to be a good time for the paper shorts to get their shit together while everyone is playing grab ass on the beach.
I know I will be spending more time on the beach this summer. Perhaps, I might see Lauren with a gold tan and a silver bikini while 4:46 and I drink Stolie-tonics talking about the new Searay 265 Sundowner I just bought.
Hey, ya gotta live alittle!
Hey, did Lauren buy a set of bolt-ons?
Hey Anon 1.13pm, I presume you mean me, I am Anon 11.13 (you almost got my name right!).
I feel sure that something will happen at the Olympics as there has been an incredible amount of occult symbolism. Also, I don't see how TPTB get from here to anything near a OWG without such an event. Also, it's 2012 and they have programmed us silly for this year. There are 80,000 in the olympic stadium, and 50,000 police/army/security personnel; even surface to air missiles. I am as certain as I can be that this will happen. I also think that holographic aliens will be involved in a fake invasion later in the year, along with a religious rapture for the whole world.
What do you think will happen this year?
Thanks for the offer of 1oz gold (!), but I am primarily interested in helping people who have no clue of any danger.
If you want to bet, tell me your predictions for this year, and then I will think about whether I want to bet on it. I would bet where I am is nowhere near you.
all the best, crazyhorse
Try this smart ass
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-PjQ_e5lVM&feature=related
He aint the last, but He will be First
Lowell L Morse
Anon 3.53
A Searay 265 Now that's a nice cruiser Where you do run it?
If you get up to Lake Tahoe, this is a great place to go top down max speed. On a clear morning day you can hit 50 knots and its like floating on air.
Hit the lake in the shoulder season and there almost no one on the lake. If you are close by look me up.
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