When asked to clarify the timing for his call for an Italian bank to fail and initiate a domino like reaction in the banking system Jim responded:
Timing questions are the hardest- definitely the hardest. I don’t know, it could be a month. Back in early December I thought it was going to be early in the new year, like in the middle of January- late January that the first Italian bank would go. And it looks like it’s going to be UniCredit. UniCredit is just hanging on by threads. We don’t have full access to what their portfolio is but all indications are that they’re holding a lot of toxic paper and they’re shedding a lot of probably government bonds, and they’re selling a lot at the ECB window.
He continues further:
So next on tap is UniCredit going bad, going bust, failing, turning to dust. And when that happens look for at least another couple Italian banks to also go bust. And when that happens look for the French banks to go bust. The three major French banks. Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale. And when that happens look for at least one or two London banks to go bust- they’re all inter-connected!
We hear constantly about the counter parties for the derivatives that these banks own. And we hear that they offset. Like Bank A has credit derivatives for default of Bank B and vice versa, so they’re both ok, they cancel out. Well that’s DEAD WRONG! DEAD WRONG!! THEY BOTH DIE! They don’t help each other! It’s like saying well this guy’s drowning in a pool in the deep water, and so is his friend! Neither one can swim, but it’ll cancel them out, and they’ll both be ok. THAT’S A BUNCH OF GARBAGE!! The counter party risk is MUTUAL AND DEADLY!
When one or two banks go down, it’s going to hit overnight, hit rapidly, and probably involve a dozen banks. That’s my feeling Doc.
Jim provided a powerful interview with much more on the Euro crisis, gold, and quantitative easing. Part 1 of the interview is now available here
Jim Willie's public analysis can be found at SilverDoctors, as well GoldenJackass.com
Jim also publishes two excellent subscription newsletters here, which are available for a very reasonable $110 for a 6-month subscription.
50 comments:
Scary DOC. Question: If or when those banks fail, how long do we have before that particular contagion gets to the US banks? Or , will it get to the US banks? Rumors I've heard (read) says we will have maybe 3 weeks to get out of all paper assets before the SHTF here.
Thoughts please from anyone/everyone
2 oz per week
2 oz per week: Willie said 1 day till the crisis his NY.
How convenient that our banks are closed Monday following the downgrades. Fed will step in and bail out Europe while our market is closed. Tuesday will be interesting.
Thanks DOC. I've putting it off a while but it looks like I may need to liquidate some "not so useful yard sale items". Maybe get more PM's and garden seeds with the cash.
Thanks for the quick response.
2 oz. per week
Right on Trey. Funny how this all happened on a world currency holiday. What'd I say in a recent post? Oh yeah, "Let your thumb hang loose and hang on".
2 oz.
If you are in paper, you want to be out of it yesterday. Even if it takes a day to hit NY, that does not mean they will be talking phone calls or declaring a bank holiday prior to opening time.
If you think the MF Global failure/confiscation of funds was limited to traders, think again. The confiscation threat applies to simple savings and checking account balances. Your assets and bank assets are no longer segregated. Of course, the FDIC *should* make you whole again but do you want to stand around waiting for that to happen.
Better to be months early than even one second too late.
The Europeans, only three weeks ago made a swap or money exchange with the FED banksters. This was for one Trillion dollars, fractional banking will allow this to be multiplied ten times or more if they so wish. This will prop up the EU banks and nations for a year or possibly longer. I don`t see any Unicredit problems in the next twelve months, just growing inflation.
this could be it , come monday. game over. i cant wait for monday!
Try ordering silver when this kind of surf is going down- silver will be unavailable very quickly.
AC_Doctor
of the same opinion as Glen; they've come this far and while i'd expect to see a collapse of an entity that doesn't bring down other entities, i can't imagine they'd led one huge entity go down that would bring down other larger entities in various nations...at least not if they can kick the can down the road and so long as they decide this isn't the time to bring about chaos...
I agree with Glen. I might not know the in and outs like Jim, but the timing/trend would be all wrong.
Some folks don't seem to grasp that this is an orchestrated banking collapse.
We also have a war about to touch off in the Middle East quite soon. TPTB will NOT bring down a banking collapse within the US until they get their war.
A simultaneous banking/war would bring anarchy in the US. To reiterate, this is an orchestrated banking collapse.
doc, wow, just noticed the 1M+ visitor count...
anon @ 7:06: that helps keep it in perspective - it's a guessing game how this will play out. MFG - they suddenly were forced to recognize tax losses according to FINRA - it was the weirdest thing when I read it - it was like all of sudden, recognize the losses - which lead to a huge quarter loss and everything just snowballed from there...
There seems to be a lot of fear mongering going on. IMO.. I thin europe will hold itself together... the media is hyping the issue up so that eyes can be diverted from the states.... the trillion they have received, as glen pointed out, will be a big boost.
The EU has been holding it together with superglue and roadside trash. They will hold it together for only about another 2-3 weeks. By then,if the Greek bond holders actually hold out on the proposed haircuts on their debt, Greece will be fucked (and Jamie Dimon and all the other asshat bankster pricks that wrote the other side of the CDS guarantees will be totally screwed and bankrupted)and will miss their 14 billion Euro loan repayment, miss its latest tranche of EU blood money and poof, the EU will be in flames, bringing down the major banks just like the article above infers.
AC_Doctor
Jimbo has nailed every step of this house of cards so far. His opinion or that of some unknown commentators? Hmm, give me a minute to think that through!!!!!!!!!!!
greece could default but would think it would kill the hedge funds who are loading up on greek bonds...as well as sellers of CDS...must think it would impact major banks
but if they do default, they could stay in the EU or be booted out...either way, greece is another item on the list that could chaos with crazy ripple effects...
The gloom and doomers are probably correct, but they always predict collapse way too soon. For example Celente's "crash of 2010", which he should have called the "agonizingly slow stagnation of 2010-2012".
Inflation is here, but it's not ridiculously high yet. There's still another year or so of printing available. John Williams from Shadowstats says hyperinflation by 2014, which makes sense mathematically.
Thinking more like 4oz per week. Better!
I think the FED will bail out any (ALL) large banks.
Look here Anonymous. I think your comment is totally without foundation.
Where do you get these ideas?
Sorry I didn't mean YOU Anonymous I meant the other Anonymous.
Indeed 2.55 AM, the FED will bail out the world, apart from Iran and a few other countries, the next couple of years.
The few hawkes still there are actually leaving the FED next month and new doves are flying in.
boomm!!!!china has just invaded taiwan!
boomm!!!!china has just invaded taiwan!
@ 1:21 AM, IMO Celente failed to anticipate the gov'ts intervention (QE's etc) ... otherwise he would have been correct. The can keeps getting kicked down the road; but only for so long.
Celente was correct just they continue to try and prop up the system with band-aid money and 0% interest rates.
The problem is the debt is so huge it's like playing hackey sack. Just every time you kick the bag it gets a little heavier. It used to be they could easily kick the bag down the road a year or two. Then it was six months. Now it's every month.
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
10 yr = 1.89%, 20yr= = 2.59%, 30 yr = 2.91%
Are we gonna see 10 yr = 0? and 20/30 yr into below 1%?
Look at the 30 year interest rate chart - 20% in 1980 to where we are now today...
can nominal rates go negative so that if you deposit dollars or invest in treasuries, you will lose dollars?!
print print print!
ANON 11:54,
I suppose the rates could go that low. Even today with the rates below 2% I think people are nuts to put their money there. I'm not a trader (and most people are not) and don't have the savvy to do it while others may be able to make a little money.
I appreciate all the good comments above. Be careful to all. Seems like there's a lot of panic in the comments. Panic can be a killer whether it's an emergency like freezing, fire or market (currency) situations.Prepare and know what to do before the situation happens. I'll close my 401K ASAP and keep stacking PM's, food, fuels, cash, etc. A little at a time will work wonders later. The stress of trying to do all this at one time will be overwhelming to say the least.
I've been following silver doctors, SGT report, other websites and conversing with friends for a while on our world situation. Only recently been posting. This site is great. Ask a question and you'll receive a multitude of advice. Weigh each piece of advice and make your own decision. Beware of those that seem to go against the major opinion of the site posters. Take even their advice and check for accuracy. I think you'll all find that those that are concerned and serious will back up their information with facts and articles.
Happy stackin' cause the COMEX is crackin'.
2 oz. per week.
P.S. To ANON 2:27 A.M. - Get on it son @ 4 oz. per week. Wish I could but right now 2 oz. is in my budget. stack to the ceiling.
"IMO Celente failed to anticipate the gov'ts intervention (QE's etc) ... otherwise he would have been correct."
Yeah, that means he was wrong. The QE wasn't that hard to predict..
If any of you think that the Fed bailing anyone out won't have inflationary consequences, think again. The Fed has a measly $60 billion in cash on hand, so any further bailouts would indicate
"electronic money creation" creating an inflationary environment for precious metals. The edge of the cliff is coming very close.
AC_Doctor
P.S. Our dearly beloved and trusted FED has $50 billion in cash vs. 3 trillion dollars in other notational purchases which put its leverage at 60:1. Nice job, Binky Ben! A more that 3% assets loss on the FED side essentially renders it insolvent just like their best buddies, our Big Banking 5 ie. JPM, BOA, CITI, Wells, Goldman Sacks.
AC_Doctor
Based upon the Fed's previous actions and Romney's backing by the banking cartel, I think they will wait until after the election.
1. They will have an insider at the very top.
2. War will be in its early stages. They are trying to slow it down now with the US military having direct talks with the Israeli military.
3. The sheeple will be crying for relief from inflation, unemployment, etc.
4. They will appeal to the veterans to back the on-going conflict instead of taking the conflict to our government. If they do not, the government will label the veterans as traitors, etc.
5. Based upon all the financial prognosticators forecasts, this would be about the time of hyperinflation, etc.
Seems like the most correct time to make a move to take over the world or at least shake up the world governments enough to allow for their influence to be effective.
Ordinary Joe
Anonymous said...
this could be it , come monday. game over. i cant wait for monday!
January 14, 2012 5:20 PM
No... Many are ignoring a simple fact. Even when a game changing event happens, the TPTB will lie about it. They will pretend everything is normal and not admit it. They do this in the interest of buying time and not making things worse.
Fireworks maybe going off but you won't see them. With that said... It's coming and there isn't way to stop it.
Like I said ANON 11:54, the posts are great. Ask the AC Doctor and Ordinary Joe for back up. I've seen their posts before and they're pretty good. I'm sure they'll refer you to their source of information. AGXIIK, Colin, ILUVPMS (although cynical at times) and a hoard of other are a wealth of information. Oh yeah, can't leave Edinburg boy out of this. We've argued a few times but he has some great leads. and see Glen at 4:49 P.M.. He has a pretty good read.
2 oz. per week
Ordinary Joe - Don't forget about the October Surprise! Last time it was the stock market crashing and the people panicked. I'm sure something of equal magnitude awaits around Sept / Oct time frame.
@12:24, did I say or imply that he was right?
If you are out of paper except maybe short term treasuries for a safe harbor that is good. If you are in LT treasuries and rates go to 4%, your bonds may drop 50% in value due to the yields issues.
If you are getting line up for a medium or large buy, the timing work in your favor.
But the critical issues that Willie notes and I've been talking about for 2 months is the Uni Credit Bank and what is being done or not about the Greek insolvency
2 months ago Dexia bank failed. One week beforeits failure TPTB swore it was solvent and safe. The following week it failed with a loss that was the equivalent of 150% of the Belgium GDP. Week one---Dexia was solvent. Week 2--insolvent
$800 billion Euros, boom, into the dust.
I predict---oh here we going with my predictions again, TPTB---ECD, IMF, Monti, Draghi, Merkel et al, will swear on their lives that Unicredit is solvent. That is the tip off that Unicredit is toast. How it will be bailed out is anybody's guess The only thing TPTB will be deciding is how much each bank or government must absorb of this entire stink bomb. What bank is solvent enough to take over this pile a crap bank? RBC, 83% owned by the UK, gobbled up the turd sandwich that was Delia print print print, gobble gobble gobble. Just a snack.
Unicredit is not that tasty. It does not have the quality assets of Dexia, like a portfolio of muni bonds. I am guessing that the ECB will designate one or more banks as the means to absorb UniCredit.
But then we come to Greece
It will take at least $500 billion to secure its safety. Maybe $50 billion to help it along so it can fail gracefully and not tank the Euro. Merkel and others really don't want to put more money into this sinking ship but if Greece fails the $350 billion in Greek bonds will default and that will absolutely kill the major banks as well as a large percentage of bank capital in the 10 largest US Banks, maybe even crushing JPM.
Dimon said they have $15 billion USD in Greek bonds and 'expect' to lose $5 billion on the haircut. If Greece defaults then it's $15 billion plus $50 billion in derivative insurance against defaults. Of course the language of haircut is just a phrase used so that JPM and others don't have to pay up on the default losses. So don't expect the word default to be used. When the word Default IS used in conjunction with Greece then the game is over and bonds loss will be paid up with insurance.
That will tip JPM over the edge They have over $115 billion capital base and that can contain a large expense since the JPM profit was $19 billion for 2011. But no bank is completely safe. So the JPM and GS drones will call on their What Haus operatives for a QE shot of liquidity to get around the loss. We will see if Obama's people pay up. If you look at the list of contributors to Romney, Wall Street is shutting off the Presidential campaign contributions.
You can trash Wall Street only some many times before they go to the real Wall Street, vulture capitalist, Fed loving, Bain running candidate. And I'm not talking about RP.
My thinking is thta Unicredit will be taken over without massive losses since those losses will crush Europe and the West.
Greece will be given the tide-me-over money until it can fail without a lot mess. Obama will not, I repeat, not allow a Euro catastrophe to happen on his watch. Not in an election year. He alraady presided over the loss of our AAA rating. He won't have his legacy trashed due to the ineptitude of the Euro failure Ben Benanke will deny to his last breath that the Fed to help the Euro. BHO will swear on a stack of Korans, ahh, I mean Bibles the same thing That when you know the fix is in.
After watching the last 20 presidents lie through their teeth to get reelected, this president will do anything to get beyond the next reelection cycle. And PS. Hillary will be his VP running mate. Biden is salivating for the Secretary of State job. HC covets the VP position BHO needs to watch his back big time.
Oops 10 presidents starting with JFK
I'm not that old
Wow. A lot to contemplate. Check it out ANON 11:54.
2 oz.
My opinion for what it is worth... We have the Fed meeting on Jan 25th.. No announcement of QE..
2 weeks later the Fed comes in unannounced and starts QE3. Silver to rocket. 75 to 100.00 an ounce by August. Fed will bail out european banks to delay the inevitable one more time. False flag from Iran, War starts and war is used as excuse for collapse of economy.
Sierra
EU nations downgrade is a good move to counter balance the extension of US gov debt limits (in less than 10 days).
Very bold Sierra,
Glad to see someone is taking notice of all that is going on. A wild time we are living in. I can't predict anything. All I can do is be ready as well as possible.
Your opinion is as valuable as anyone's on this site. Is this a feeling you have or do you know something I/we don't? Either way, thanks. I'm trying to get a total feel of all that's happening.
Sounds like you visit PAKALERT. Me too.
Signing off for the night. I'll check again in the morning.
2 oz.
"can nominal rates go negative so that if you deposit dollars or invest in treasuries, you will lose dollars?!"
Oh, hell yeah! Fact is, with REAL inflation running at about 9% (forget the crap numbers coming from the Fed on this), all bonds and cash investments are profit negative at the moment. So are most stocks and mutual funds. By pretending that food and fuel don't matter (things that ARE inflating) while worrying about things (housing) that are deflating, the Fed is playing a cute little game called "Inflation? What inflation? We don't see no steenking inflation!". Those of us who live in the real world, as opposed to those who live on paper, know that there is inflation and that it is more than 2x as much as is being admitted.
so true on inflation. 9% and going up. if you check GDP with a growth of 1-2%, it is actually going backwards by 5-7%. the US contraction is enormous and the middle class gets hammered
inflation is the silent killer of wealth, income and savings. It is the beloved factor in governments who monetize to the moon. Taxes go up unadjusted for inflation while debt increases exponentially.
I don't know about all you guys' and gals' inflation expectations, but being a stacker on disability I'm sure glad as hell that I did most of my major stacking with my back-pay check from SSD when I finally got it late in '06 and on then more as I could all the dips whenever I could with whatever I could rustle up when silver was anywhere from $8-$18. And even before that starting two years before, I just borrowed and sold my little heart out every chance I got so that I could to grab all I could while the grabbin' was good in the $5, $6 and $7 ranges because I know it's only going to get a whole lot worse than what we've seen thus far.. And from my perspective, it's already pretty damn bad! Last year from December to December my electric utility rate for my all-electric home including delivery line charges and taxes went up by just a but-hair under 51%, while my property taxes went up by twelve! ... And I know damn well that next year's raises in said rates may very easily make those seem small by comparison to the extent that they are likely to leave me feeling dizzier than a tick in a wooden yo-yo thanks to Ben's never-ending and yet presumed to be "Invisible-QE" that before this is all over HAS to mean that we've only seen the beginning and just a super-small part of what's still yet to come! Which I am sad to say can and WILL hurt me and people like me who are on a fixed budget the most! Anymore it seems that the only things that are going down in price as measured in the paper-tiger-dollar are the elite's throw-away play-toy's that have already been fully depreciated. And the only thing that's going up, is everything else! Especially if it's something like food and utilities and real estate taxes and water and sewage... All things that are needed in order for one to merely survive! I used to be an avid reader of every single article each and every week on Gold-eagle and several others including Kitco's commentary boards. But now that we have the Doc and SGT I find that these pages are a LOT faster and easier to peruse and that they are almost always JUST as in depth, accurate and if anything, more timely! And frankly it seems to me that it's a lot easier to tell here who the schills are, and who they are not! Now thankfully, that's not really been too much of a prevalent problem thank God here or on SGT. So much so here I think because the Doc is such a good board moderator and on top of things while being as "democratically fair" as he can at the same time! But when it does happens, I love the fact that the righteous members here always catch it and slam them quick, calling a spade a spade so that the younger and more inexperienced silver-bugs visiting will know in two shakes of a dog's tail who they are too so that they know not to trust them! Good work EVERYONE! And thank you Doc for all your fine work! It's because of sites like this one that I KNOW that I am not alone. And not crazy. Or insane... Or even so much as eccentric! And instead, I can "come here" and know that all I am, is just smart enough to want to be prepared... "like the boy-scout's solemn creed"! And in a world like the one we live in today... that's almost as valuable as the silver in my vault!
I don't know about all you guys' and gals' inflation expectations, but being a stacker on disability I'm sure glad as hell that I did most of my major stacking with my back-pay check from SSD when I finally got it late in '06 and on then more as I could all the dips whenever I could with whatever I could rustle up when silver was anywhere from $8-$18. And even before that starting two years before, I just borrowed and sold my little heart out every chance I got so that I could to grab all I could while the grabbin' was good in the $5, $6 and $7 ranges because I know it's only going to get a whole lot worse than what we've seen thus far.. And from my perspective, it's already pretty damn bad! Last year from December to December my electric utility rate for my all-electric home including delivery line charges and taxes went up by just a but-hair under 51%, while my property taxes went up by twelve! ... And I know damn well that next year's raises in said rates may very easily make those seem small by comparison to the extent that they are likely to leave me feeling dizzier than a tick in a wooden yo-yo thanks to Ben's never-ending and yet presumed to be "Invisible-QE" that before this is all over HAS to mean that we've only seen the beginning and just a super-small part of what's still yet to come! Which I am sad to say can and WILL hurt me and people like me who are on a fixed budget the most! Anymore it seems that the only things that are going down in price as measured in the paper-tiger-dollar are the elite's throw-away play-toy's that have already been fully depreciated. And the only thing that's going up, is everything else! Especially if it's something like food and utilities and real estate taxes and water and sewage... All things that are needed in order for one to merely survive! I used to be an avid reader of every single article each and every week on Gold-eagle and several others including Kitco's commentary boards. But now that we have the Doc and SGT I find that these pages are a LOT faster and easier to peruse and that they are almost always JUST as in depth, accurate and if anything, more timely! And frankly it seems to me that it's a lot easier to tell here who the schills are, and who they are not! Now thankfully, that's not really been too much of a prevalent problem thank God here or on SGT. So much so here I think because the Doc is such a good board moderator and on top of things while being as "democratically fair" as he can at the same time! But when it does happens, I love the fact that the righteous members here always catch it and slam them quick, calling a spade a spade so that the younger and more inexperienced silver-bugs visiting will know in two shakes of a dog's tail who they are too so that they know not to trust them! Good work EVERYONE! And thank you Doc for all your fine work! It's because of sites like this one that I KNOW that I am not alone. And not crazy. Or insane... Or even so much as eccentric! And instead, I can "come here" and know that all I am, is just smart enough to want to be prepared... "like the boy-scout's solemn creed"! And in a world like the one we live in today... that's almost as valuable as the silver in my vault!
I don't think anyone could have said it any better Eric G. For all you young'uns and less experienced people like me, read the post again and learn.
2 oz.per week
...I agree. This site has been good for me as well. I don't like to blow things up too much but here's a big thank you to this site and its contributors.
SS
I subscribe to Willie and To Ron Kirby. Willie plays down his expertise on occasion to Ron Kirby's analysis, but he may be a bit too humble. Both are PHD's and understand derivatives inside out. If I didn't trust their knowledge, most of there comments would be too far out for me, or anyone else to accept. Unfortunately, I'm afraid they understand exactly what they are talking about.
None of this will be allowed to actually come to fruition though as the CB will print and hand out money like there is no tomorrow if that is what it take to prevent it. They just won't let it happen. They'll destroy fiat currency first. Kick the can down the road till fiat dies a sudden, very painful death.
Regards,
Curtis
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