Thursday, January 19, 2012

Jim Willie: Large Physical Gold Orders Are Clearing at $230 OVER Paper Markets

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Entire 3-part Jim Willie interview
With the S&P massively downgrading the Eurozone nations Friday, The Doc interviewed Jim Willie of goldenjackass.com regarding his thoughts on the Euro crisis and the implications to gold and silver.  All three parts of the interview with transcript are included below. 



Part 1 of the interview focuses on the Euro crisis and Jim's call for a domino like chain of bank failures across the Western banking system likely to begin with the failure of UniCredit.



Part 2 focuses on gold, physical gold and silver tightness, and the decoupling of the price of actual physical metal from the paper futures price.

 

Part 3 focuses on the future of silver and gold prices.



Copyright © 2012 SilverDoctors. All Rights Reserved.  Transcript may not be re-published without written permission, but linking is welcomed and encouraged.  Embedding of the videos is permissible.

Complete Interview Transcription.
Part 1

This is The Doc from SilverDoctors.com, we have Jim Willie on the line to discuss his thoughts on the Euro crisis and a variety of other topics affecting gold and silver. Jim Willie is the founder of Golden Jackass.com where he releases weekly public reports exposing the corruption of the western banking system, and also publishes a subscription newsletter called The Hat Trick Letter. Jim is no holds barred- he calls it like he sees it. Jim- it’s a pleasure to have you here today. Jim: Well it nice to be on Mr. Silver Doctor, I’ll call you Doc from here on. Don’t call me Doctor, just call me Jim, Jim Willie. Yeah, this is a very strange time, it’s great to be on your show, it’s nice to see that you’re kicking off a radio show, it’s long overdue, there’s so much to discuss, it’s really frightening what’s going on Doc. Doc: We had quite a Friday yesterday Jim, how about we get right down to the Euro. We saw a big downgrade of France, Span, Italy- S&P has placed 14 of the 16 Eurozone nations on negative outlook- why don’t we start by discussing the Euro crisis. Jim: It seems like every few weeks there’s another downgrade. The most important downgrade that I noticed yesterday was France. Let’s face it. Nicholas Sarkozy is in BIG TROUBLE. He’s actually trying to say the austerity plans they have in place, some of the budget cuts- that they will fix the situation and make the economy more stable, make their financial system more stable, put it on better ground, and I think he is DEAD WRONG. I don’t understand except to conclude that they’re trying to force an economic and financial breakdown. These austerity plans are poison pills. They result in a worse recession. They result in more job cuts. They result in bigger deficits. It seems like they don’t work, so they do it again. It didn’t work in Greece so they do it again. We’ve done about 4 or 5 austerity plans put in place with Greece- everything is getting worse.  Right now Sarkozy is something like 14 percent behind his primary opponent in the French primary polls. I think he’s going to be deposed. So France got downgraded- lost it’s coveted triple A. Of course I don’t think there’s more than one country in the world that deserves a triple A, and that’s Germany- They still have trade surpluses. But France has lost its triple A. And what does that mean? It means that big banks are going to have to shed their bonds of French government debt. And it means a lot of pension funds, it means a lot of insurance funds- the investment grade has been lost. There’s something that has been missed though in this whole announcement. And that is that the Euro Financial Stabilization Facility, the EFSF ALSO issues bonds. And ITS triple A rating is now in jeopardy! I don’t know how many different countries contribute towards that bond, but if you have downgrades in the leading nations behind the stability fund, it’s going to be very difficult to sell those new EFSF bonds as triple A when they’re being downgraded on their components. This is going to be really dangerous Doc, I just see nothing fixed, and buying time. Spain and Italy got downgraded, and I think the more important one right now is Spain, even though Italy has been in the news more- Spain has not been downgraded too many times, and has not really reached the critical 7% on the 10 year bond yield. Watch Italy and Spain both creep back up to 7%. There’s a funny little line that I used to say to friends a few weeks ago, they’d say ‘well gee the European Central bank is buying bonds, so why is the Italian bond yield heading towards 7%? I thought that the Euro central bank is buying them!’ And I said well, the European Central Bank is buying truckloads, but the European banks are selling BOATLOADS! So the net is trouble and a net sale on those bonds. These are NOT FIXABLE!! I think we have something like 1/3 of all the European sovereign bonds for the scheduled year to come from Italy. I mean they’ve got some really big volumes! A year ago when Greece was in the news almost every day I remember reading some very shallow analysis. I don’t pull punches as you say. How many times did we read a year or a year and a half ago that Italy’s ok- they’ve got good ratios! Doc: Yeah, their ratios aren’t as bad, but the total volume’s a lot worse! Jim: That’s exactly the point!! Their ratios! The two ratios of importance are the debt- the total debt for the country divided by their economic size- the GDP. And the other is what percentage of their entire budget is in deficit. And you know we kept hearing that Italy’s ok- Italy’s not so bad with the ratios. And I kept saying, NO NO NO! Wait till they try to float that GIANT VOLUME! So Doc, it’s all about volume now, and the ECB is an unwilling participant in this process! Doc: It certainly seems that way. One thing I had wanted to ask you- in your weekly piece this week, US Dollar Paper Tiger you made a statement: ‘When the first Italian bank goes bust a French bank a German bank and a London bank will all turn to dust immediately. One day later a New York bank will follow to the glue factory.’ With this big downgrade this weekend, how soon are we likely looking at the first Italian bank going bust and this domino progression starting? Are we talking weeks? Days? Jim: Wow. Timing questions are the hardest- definitely the hardest. I don’t know, it could be a month. Back in early December I thought it was going to be early in the new year, like in the middle of January- late January that the first Italian bank would go. And it looks like it’s going to be UniCredit. UniCredit is just hanging on by threads. We don’t have full access to what their portfolio is but all indications are that they’re holding a lot of toxic paper and they’re shedding a lot of probably government bonds, and they’re selling a lot at the ECB window. It’s really hard to say- I don’t know. I’ve been focusing on a different approach regarding the breakdown, and I learned this back in 03 when a certain liberation of a nation took place to remove a certain tyrant in Baghdad- but it’s basically the event schedule. So next on tap is UniCredit going bad, going bust, failing, turning to dust. And when that happens look for at least another couple Italian banks to also go bust. And when that happens look for the French banks to go bust. The three major French banks. Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale. And when that happens look for at least one or two London banks to go bust- they’re all inter-connected! I’ve been putting out in my Hat Trick Letter reports graphs that show cross border exposure. Like how much Italian debt the French banks have. How much Spanish, Italian, and Greek debt the London banks have! Commerce Bank in Germany is not immune, they’re going to fall by the wayside! So all these banks are inter-connected! I’d like to make one little final point regarding this important topic and that is: we hear constantly about the counter parties for the derivatives that these banks own. And we hear that they offset. Like Bank A has credit derivatives for default of Bank B and vice versa, so they’re both ok, they cancel out. Well that’s DEAD WRONG! DEAD WRONG!! THEY BOTH DIE! They don’t help each other! It’s like saying well this guy’s drowning in a pool in the deep water, and so is his friend! Neither one can swim, but it’ll cancel them out, and they’ll both be ok. THAT’S A BUNCH OF GARBAGE!! The counter party risk is MUTUAL AND DEADLY!
When one or two banks go down, it’s going to hit overnight, hit rapidly, and probably involve a dozen banks. That’s my feeling Doc.
Doc: I definitely agree and see how that will happen. With the derivative system we have today, it’s all really a big house of cards, and one of these pillars is taken out, there’s nothing to support it any more. Jim: No it’s not. They take each other down. The shadow banking system is a mutual millstone. They all go down together. And that’s why you saw with the Greek renegotiated bonds where they all agreed that ok, it’ll be a 35% haircut, or it’ll be a 40%, or maybe it’ll be a 50% bond loss. They declared that it would not be a default event. They even used the word re-definitition! So derivatives are deadly and they're doing their utmost (the bank leaders that is) they’re doing their utmost to prevent a declaration of default! Because if you see one you’re going to find out that they don’t help each other, they drag each other down! Simple as that Doc! Doc: If you had told me a year or two ago that Greece would have a 50% default and it wouldn’t be called a default I wouldn’t have believed you, I would have thought you were crazy. Jim: Well that’s what they’re doing, they’re just calling it a re-definition. They’re playing a lot of games with the contract wording. And they’re getting a lot of objections from the suddenly responsible debt ratings agencies: Fitch, Moody’s, S&P, and they’re saying, ‘you guys are just not legally correct’. I’m expecting lawsuits from the holders of the derivatives contracts. They’re insurance contracts! It’s like saying I have a fire insurance policy on my house and my whole back side burned down. But the agents come in and say ‘well, we’re going to redefine what a fire is. No, that’s not a fire, that’s just extreme oxidation, and you don’t get your claim.’ The fire would just burn the whole neighborhood down. That’s my analogy. These derivatives are very strange, very cryptic, and they’re not going to go away. It’s just mind boggling. You know you can’t point to any area of the financial world and say ‘well that’s stable.’ Or ‘that’s doing well.’ Or ‘that shows complete transparency and health.’ NOTHING like that Doc, nothing!

Part 2
Doc:  I couldn’t agree more.  Let’s focus on other point here with the Euro crisis.  You mentioned that the ECB is buying the bonds by the truckload but the banks are dumping them by the boatload.  Let’s make sure the listeners are aware of the Fed’s role in all this.  They’re not just sitting around and watching Europe’s collapse, are they?
Jim:  No, they’re doing a lot.  First of all, let me preface by reporting a particular story- it didn’t really get legs which tells me that it might have been true- you can’t say that if a story fades therefore it’s false- no it just gets pretty much buried.  There were a lot of reports a couple months ago that Wall Street firms were using an exotic trade based on funding from Japanese Yen- notice they’ve got a near 0% interest rate- so funded by the Japanese Yen they were shorting European sovereign bonds and shorting the Euro.  So that worked out very well for them if that’s what they did.  And I suspect that that’s what they did, because Wall Street’s got their fingers in all sorts of pies. 
The Fed is not standing by as you say- that’s very true.   What they did in I think it was the 1st week of December-  they announced a  $1.2 Trillion lending facility.  So it’s ironic, you would think that all this monetary inflation would lift gold.  But what happens is the central banks say we’re going to lend a lot of money and that enables the big European banks to borrow dollars to satisfy some of their obligations that are dollar based.  But they also go out and borrow the money and use the money to lease gold which has ridiculous lease rates- I think you were pointing out earlier that the 6 month went down to minus 60 basis points for a full day then went back up, probably a nice open window for them to lease at no cost at all- lease the gold to sell it!  So the central banks are doing a lot to help this situation out by making it possible to enable leasing of gold.   And you’ve got to wonder, well where’s all the gold coming from!?!   I thought there’s a shortage!  Well there was, until Greece had its problems, and they have 111 metric tons!!  And I think a good deal of that- not all- but a good deal of that has been made available in the gold market for leasing and sale.  One of the conditions for Greek aid could very well have been:  You make your gold available for leasing! ‘It won’t be lost- IT WON’T BE LOST, we’re just going to borrow it!’  and then they’re free to sell it.  So it won’t be lost!  And that’s the same old garbage con shell game that’s been going on. 
The other big source of gold has been from Libya.  You know isn’t it interesting that the London banks are deeply insolvent-  Lloyd’s of London is threatened with death- the Royal Bank of Scotland is owned 60% by the British government, and suddenly Libya is declared to be a rogue nation!  And Qaddafi’s got to go!  Alright well, I’ve never been a fan of Qaddafi, I thought he was a heavily medicated, psychotic maniac, but he ended up in a sewer pipe, disemboweled!   He was violated from behind.  He was found dead in a pipe.   And Libya had to let loose 144 tons of gold!   Well gosh, isn’t it interesting that war is good for gold supply!  I wonder what other despot is going to have to go in order to free up the gold.  This just raises questions about the legitimacy of war itself.  I could go on and on, it’s so ugly Doc. 
Doc-  It used to be the old quote “War costs much silver”, but now these days it seems to be that “War brings much gold. 
Jim:  Very good line, yes, yes, incredible. 
Doc:  I think that’s a very good point for listeners to take into account here- so much of the precious metals community currently is scared out of their pants right now with gold and silver correcting and being down in the middle of this Euro crisis- and they’re really not understanding the whole picture.  What you just talked about here with the supply coming from these wars and from Greece- obviously as well as the whole paper rigged game as well.
Jim:  Well there’s another source too, and it’s really not new, but it’s hardly discussed on a regular basis, and it’s the GLD fund, the ETF.  If you look closely at the prospectus, it enables the custodian to short the stock for the GLD.  And with shorted shares they’re entitled to go in and grab inventory.  Which just sounds like a complete abomination.   The custodian can short the GLD and lay claim to inventory.  It has a HUGE short interest right now.  So that has been a back-door supply of other gold.  I FIRMLY believe,  and I’ve said this now for 2 years: there will come a day when the gap between the GLD share price and the physical gold price widens so badly that calls of corruption come and lawsuits come, and then the GLD is shut down.  Then everybody’s gonna realize that the GLD really doesn’t have much gold left.  You know it’s great to say I sold my IBM stock, I sold my Google stock, I sold my Walmart stock, and I’m buying some gold with GLD.  Well you’re not buying gold at all!   You’re buying certificates that enable them to short gold! It’s really quite ugly. 
I think there’s another phenomenon that’s very important in the gold market to keep in mind right now, and that’s a divergence.   I wrote about this in a previous article a few weeks ago… I recently brought up a point about divergence.   I remember when gold went below $1800 and plumbed the depths of $1700, I sent a message to one of best sources of gold information who’s a trader in a foreign country- he’s not an American citizen.   And I said, if you don’t mind, what are you seeing for the prevailing physical gold price as we’re at $1720 or $1730 right now one the supposed price discovery out of COMEX.  And he said, well, you have to pay very little attention to COMEX, it might show $1730, but I could show you lots and lots of sales in the multiple millions of gold in the $1950 range.  So there was a $230 premium for physical.    And I think this divergence is going to be much bigger as time passes on.  The physical price is not coming down as much as the COMEX price.   I don’t think they’ve got a whole lot of gold.  If you want to talk about sources of gold, you have to talk about alleviating some of the sources of demand for the COMEX gold.  You had several hundreds if not thousands of people lined up at the window of COMEX in very early December awaiting delivery, and instead they had their accounts all stolen.   So that really helps to keep some of the supply.  And if you look at some of the data you’ll see, and I’m not sure, I think you actually might have pointed this out, that 615,000 ounces of silver was demanded for delivery in very early December.  615,000 ounces.  But 618,000 ounces or vice versa showed up suddenly in the JP Morgan account. 
Doc:  And that’s just coincidence, right?
Jim: Yeah, yeah, yeah, you could say that.  Or you could say it’s a smoking gun.
There’s really not much that’s legitimate or honest, or integrity- there’s not much integrity in the gold market anymore, and it’s becoming widely known. 
So you have several different unusual, suspicious sources of gold, and you’ve got a divergence.   I fully believe that the MF Global impact is going to be isolation of the COMEX, and eventually it’s going to shut down and become a cash market.  It has to happen.  I mean, where are they going to get their next big supply?  Another war?  Another MF Global?  I don’t know.   It’s becoming precarious. 
The cartel for gold must be applauded for having extended this market for this long.  I thought back in 2005 that they could never get to 2010, but they did, and its 2012 now. 
Doc: Back in 2008 I didn’t think they would make it through ’09.
Jim:  Well, they did, and there’s nothing better than a crisis over there to make the dollar look better- wherever “over there” is.   They’ve got a balancing act here Doc.  They’re trying to limit the economic strength for demand, like for oil.  They’re trying to limit economic strength for demand of whatever commodity like say copper.  And if they can limit the final demand through economic weakness, they believe that they can keep a lid on this, and not enable price inflation from getting out of control-  the horses running wild out of the stable.   And what they’re risking here instead, is the financial center’s collapse.  Like a string of banks falling down.  I think it’s gonna happen.  I think it IS happening!   You wouldn’t believe some of the things going on behind the scenes like strange sources of money keeping Bank of America afloat. 
Doc:  I thought that was pretty obvious just as a few weeks back when BOA finally broke that $5 handle- instantly they were levitated back above $5 and held there.  It just reeked of massive manipulation.
Jim:  Well Warren Buffet hand a hand in there, and it’s hard to pull 4 Warren Buffet’s, when it seems like he goes after rescues of some of the most vile, ugly, toxic ridden, fraud ridden entities like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. 
If truth be known, narcotics money laundering money, those funds are keeping Bank of America afloat.  Even the United Nations reports have attested to that.   So the whole- I think even Eric Sprott said last week that the whole financial system in the West is a farce.   And it’s becoming recognized as a farce!   And we’re just pointing out the broken pieces in Europe, and the corrupted markets and the market with gold.  There’s really not a single financial plank that’s clean.   And people have to react to that.
 I think people are going to have some serious wake-up calls this year, I don’t think that MF Global is an isolated event.   I don’t think private account confiscations and vanishing acts are done!  
So gold and silver I think are the ways to go to protect yourself, and there will be a tax on gold and silver too.    So Doc, you know, we’re living in pretty dangerous times, and they’re not going to get safer!  They’re just going to get weirder- more dangerous and weirder!
Doc:  A little while ago you mentioned that the world financial system will not survive in its current form, I think in your US Dollar, Paper Tiger article you said the same, and stated that “A collapse is due probably by late 2012 or early 2013 after the US presidential elections. “   So my question to you then today Jim, is if in your opinion the financial system will not survive past 2012, right now today, is this likely the last major correction or entry point to accumulate precious metals such as gold or silver?
Jim:  Again, it’s really hard to know- will there be another foreign nation and a despot that falls?  Does Syria contain a lot of gold?  I don’t know.   How much gold does Spain have?  If they go bust will their system disgorge a tremendous amount of gold bullion?  I don’t know, it’s very difficult to know, but what is assured to me, and this is a point I’d like to keep stressing, what is assured to me is that the paper price from COMEX is going to become increasingly irrelevant.   Because there are going to be fewer and fewer participants in that market.  So the dominant market will be the physical.  Where you call up some of these traders who have billionaires as clients, and you say, well what’s the prevailing price?  There will be a time when COMEX is going to be like $300 lower than actual physical trader prices for good, substantial physical purchases.  

Part 3
I’m talking multi-million dollar, like I want to buy $80 million worth of gold bullion- what do you have?  And you don’t turn to the COMEX price for that.  There’s a lot of games going on, and I just cannot see this system continuing.  As for final entry points, I don’t really know.   But I do believe that we're going to see a wider and wider disparity with COMEX having the finger pointed at it- maybe with some lawsuits before long.  And watch the CME group right now, they’re under fire.  They might actually have to disband, they should disband because they didn’t protect private accounts.  So you know, you just can’t find anything that’s really clean anymore, and that’s why I like the cleanness of gold and silver.  I do believe that this year is going to be a bit of a rebuild year, a recovery year.  I’ll be honest.  Back in August and July and June and May, I was thinking that by the end of the year 2011 we’re going to see a $60 silver price, and we’re going to easily see $2,000- $2,200 gold price.  And I was wrong!  I was wrong because I didn’t foresee the dollar swap facilities being used to help the dollar and harm gold in leasing.  I didn’t foresee the disgorge of Libyan gold, I thought all along that the Greek gold would be made available, but I thought it would go to China, because they were buying discounted Greek sovereign debt.   I got some things correct and I got some things wrong, and it’s just really tough out there. 
Doc:  It’s hard to make price predictions when you have to factor in illegal confiscations and supply added to the market. 
Jim:  So maybe why bother, just sit back and wait for the next event, because it’s coming.  Another MF Global is coming!  I’ve got some family and friends who say to me, MF Global kind of changed my perception.  I thought you were a bit of a wild, crazy man the last few years but this looks really bad.   And I said, and Lehman didn’t?  And Bear Sterns didn’t?  And you know they give me attitude back.  But I’ve been saying- I’ve been on this theme now for 7 years, that the US banking system would go bust, that the US would have chronic trillion dollar deficits, that the housing market for the US would never recover, and I’m right on all three.  And these are mega, mega trend forecasts.   So I do believe we’re going to see our day in the sun with gold and silver, it may take a few more intense criminal acts for it to happen, like another MF Global.  I think we’re going to see some large financial firms topple.  If we do see that event like we’re discussing in Europe where a couple of Italian, a couple of French, and a couple of London banks all go poof, along with a German (bank) and it extends to New York, you’re going to see quite a response with gold.   What seems to harm gold is their patch of solutions that aren’t solutions.
Doc:  Can kicking measures.
Jim: Yeah.  They’re not fixing anything, and in the process of not fixing anything they’re enabling more crunches to come illicitly against gold.   And therefore- I keep coming back to this- therefore widening the spread between the true gold price and the COMEX price.   I have a certain friend who said Jim, I can’t believe what I’m seeing with the gold price.  And I said which gold price are you referring to?  And he said what do you mean?  And I said  COMEX is the paper price- I’m not sure there’s a whole lot of gold behind that.  Do they have gold in those inventories at COMEX?  Because I’m hearing that they have almost none!  And all the inventory reports for COMEX are false!!  They’re committed gold bullion, they’re not available gold bullion.   And they play their games with registered vs allocated registered and available.  Let them play their games.  It’s kind of like here we have core inflation and we have regular inflation, and we have the jobless rate, but then we’ve got the other jobless rate…oh man.   I’m a statistician and I like working through the nonsense and coming up with straight statistics and dismissing nonsensical data out there.  There are very few economic data series out there that are honest.   One of the cleanest of all (I know this isn’t on theme or anything) one of the cleanest data series out there is what’s the trend- what are the changes year-to-year, quarter-to-quarter for withholding of taxes from payroll.  Payroll withholding taxes.  There’s no adjustments.   It’s just plain, it’s clean, and it points to recession.   We’ve been stuck in a recession Doc for 4 years ranging between minus 4% and minus 6%.  That’s why there’s no job growth, because we’re stuck in a recession!  Everybody knows it, yet the data says otherwise. 
Doc:  Every day we’re getting a report of another 10,000 jobs being slashed, another 4,000, another 15,000- we’re not reading about Boeing adding another 50,000 workers or-
Jim:  They’re shutting down a Wichita, Kansas plant, Boeing is.   I go by the individual stories, I have friends scattered across the US, and I talk to them.  I talked to one just a couple of days ago, and he’s basically ruined.  He has a small business that’s ruined.  And he’s going to have his car repossessed.   And I mean I’d like to help them all, but I can’t…I can’t.  It’s sad.  It’s sad what’s happening to the country- it’s collapsing, I fully expect that in 5 years the United States as we know it will not exist it will be more like 6 territories. 
Doc:  It is sad, and I think that’s why both of us try to convince as many readers or listeners to protect themselves with gold and silver  to protect their assets, and so that they can continue to support their families with what’s coming ahead here. 
Jim:  Yes, very good.  And can I mention my website? 
Doc:  Yes, I wanted to let you do that, and I wanted to let listeners know that SilverDoctors will be publishing Jim’s weekly or bi-weekly public newsletter, but yes, please go ahead and tell the listeners and the readers how they can access your Hat Trick Letter- the subscription service you offer. 
Jim:  Ok.  The website is called Golden Jackass.  That’s http://www.goldenjackass.com/ .  It’s an irreverent name.  Actually I’ve got to say that my late mother when I was young- I was insolent.  You can imagine me and the difficulties with me in the household in school- she used to call me Little Jackass.  ‘Come-on you Jackass, get in here!’  So she just laughed her head off several years ago when I told her I was starting a website called the Golden Jackass.  She didn’t believe me until I produced it.  On the website you’ll see a public area.  And that’s where I’ve got radio interview like this one posted, and I’ve got a long list of public articles dating back a couple of years or more-3 years.  I like to put a quick paragraph of what the article’s about to make it easier to access.  But if you like these and you want more of the same but more depth for information, more depth of the stories, analytic points drawn out, good logical flow, and charts and forecasts- I’ve got a pretty good track record.  Much better than the usual 20-30% accuracy for most forecasts out there.  Most economists are lucky if they get 5% of their forecasts correct, I get probably at least 60-70% of mine are correct.  I had a forecast for instance in April where I said look at the Japanese Yen following the earthquake of suspicious origins, look at the Yen, it’s at 117, I fully expect it to be at 130 in the next several months.  It did exactly that, because they sold a lot of treasury bonds to pay for the reconstruction.  I thought it was a slam-dunk, easy call, but everyone that I know in the US mainstream was saying that no, the Yen’s going to have further trouble because the earthquake has difficulties in the economy-just wrong points made by very well paid people in Wall Street and London.   So I’ve got 2 reports that are the standard fare of the Hat Trick Letter.  One is the Money War report, and that’s changed from a few years ago where it used to be the Macro Economic report, but there’s no need to forecast an insolvent US banking system, because it happened!  And there’s no need to forecast chronic trillion dollar deficits for the government because they’re happening.  And there’s no need to forecast a chronic housing bear market because it’s happening.   So instead I changed the main Macro Economic report to a Money War report that focuses on Central Bank wrangling, the competing currency wars, and the efforts to destroy the economies by keeping their currencies down, which kills capital, a point that economists do not comprehend.   Easy money, low rates kill capital, raise costs.  Just a simple example, if your cost structure rises from all the inflation, then you have to lay off workers because your costs are higher.  Because your profit margins are diminishing or have vanished.   The second report besides the Money War report is something that’s been going on and has been published for several years, it’s the Gold and Currency report where I discuss a lot of different stories behind gold, you know like the ETF’s and data that points to their corruption.  Stories like the commitment of traders and how it’s looking like the whole cycle has ended- that’s another reason that gold and silver are probably going to rise- the cycle of covering shorts seems to have been completed.   And a lot of other stories regarding gold like the Qaddafi gold, and other central bank purchases of gold, and the new- well it’s not new but it’s been making a lot of news, the Shanghai Co-op organization: China, Russia, and a number of other nations are banding together and I think they’re organizing a revolt against the dollar.  A lot of that I cover in the gold and silver report.  The Gold and Currency report rather.   So I’ve got the Money War report and the Gold and Currency report , and those are the standard reports offered at a competitive price for a 6-month subscription.  Come-on down, check out the Golden Jackass, read some free articles, and sign up for the newsletter.   So Doc, that’s the offer, that’s the deal, and it hasn’t changed in price in 3-4 years, and it’s doing very well.  A number of other newsletters are king of suffering from the mining stocks, which I do not recommend- Way Way too many problems with mining stocks, I recommend gold and silver, physical coins and bars.   So Doc, thanks for having me on.
Doc:  Well it’s great to have you, and I’ll throw in my .02, for all the listeners I highly recommend your letter.  I think your letter and Butler’s letter are probably the only 2 must read subscription services, and I definitely highly recommend both to all the listeners.   I really appreciate your time and coming on today Jim, and all of your insights.
Jim.  My pleasure, hope to do it again. 
Doc:  Sounds good, we’ll talk to you soon.
Jim:  Alright, thanks.


Jim Willie's public analysis can be found at SilverDoctors, as well  GoldenJackass.com Jim also publishes two excellent subscription newsletters here, which are available for a very reasonable $110 for a 6-month subscription.

 

52 comments:

Anonymous said...

Part 2:

"This video is private."

Ashutosh said...

so it means Gols is already at $1640+$230 = $1870.. in the physical market

Crusso33 said...

I love part 3 how this guy suggest that the Libyan gold was stolen as fact as part of his rational for getting silver and gold investors crushed by insane predictions like $60.00 silver. Libyan gold may have been stolen...but we don't know and there lies the problem with this blog and what it ASSUMES, which makes an ass out of you and me. Let's say it was stolen, do you we really think the 1% extra gold crushed the gold and silver market, no...because it isn't that much gold given what is outputted in the mines on a yearly basis. But once again, lets listen to a guy who doesn't let facts get in the way of his not so good argument.

Mammoth said...

Not to discredit Jim, but what about this comment?
"I had a forecast for instance in April where I said look at the Japanese Yen following the earthquake of suspicious origins,"
- - - - - - - - - - -
Did anyone else pick up on this comment?

Perhaps fracking (for natural gas) can cause earthquakes, but is Jim suggesting last year's Japan earthquake was intentional?

Conax said...

"You know it’s great to say I sold my IBM stock, I sold my Google stock, I sold my Walmart stock, and I’m buying some gold with GLD. Well you’re not buying gold at all! You’re buying certificates THAT ENABLE THEM TO SHORT GOLD!"

Like a judo counter-move, they use the gold interest momentum and funds to damage the very market the buyer is counting on. Stop buying these certificates and start stacking, you silly geese!

James said...

I subscribe to Willie and To Ron Kirby. Willie plays down his expertise on occasion to Ron Kirby's analysis, but he may be a bit too humble. Both are PHD's and understand derivatives inside out. If I didn't trust their knowledge, most of there comments would be too far out for me, or anyone else to accept. Unfortunately, I'm afraid they understand exactly what they are talking about.

Anonymous said...

Mammoth ... If you've read Ben Fulford or David Wilcox you'll know exactly what JW is referring to. Interesting times we live in.

Anonymous said...

they can buy it on ebay for cheaper. i can still get physical silver cheap. so i am not sure what to make of this

Anonymous said...

I have been subscribing HTL since 2005 and it has been emerging with rising influence since then. Along the way Jim seems to have accquired lot more information source and owing to increasing popularity and influence some may feed him with flase flag intentionally and unintentionally.

It is a very difficult job to make clear what is going on as "they" have vast resoucre to maintain control anti-nwo propaganda such as AJ and BF etc.

I'll say Jim has over 70% of his info match what is going on eventually. This is very difficult indeed, and not a healthy task.

Anonymous said...

there is a 1 toz 2000 silver panda on ebay with about 2 days left in auction...113.50 is the bid!!! outrageous!!

conax said...

Re: Anon 6:32
"I’m talking multi-million dollar, like I want to buy $80 million worth of gold bullion- what do you have?"
Not really available on the bay in this quantity, these whales don't shop among the masses. Even if they did, a transaction of this size is an entirely different animal than buying a few ounces from Joe Blow on ebay.
They say silver can go nowhere because the entire market can't accomodate a few of these bigshot's huge buys. Therefore it is cheaper ??? (this makes no sense at all)

Anonymous said...

I don't know much about ebay but two days seems like a lot of time, that's a steal though if it's the final bid. Congratulations to Doc for the interview and being able to publish the jackass letters, that's awesome and so is seeing silver over $30.
T

Anonymous said...

I don't understand why Silver Eagles on Ebay are so way overpriced.
You could go to any number of legit online retailers and pay substantially less.
A tube of ASE's for $850 ??? Why ?

Former Ebay addict said...

Ebay is the Sheeple's feedbag. Buyers there don't check prices. The goodies are laid out looking like a line up Miss Americas
It is way to easy to get sucked into the buying frenzy on Ebay. That is the way the selling algorithms are set up.
Auctions, timers, competitive bids and auctions are all prepared to get the buyer feeding frenzy into high gear. That is why people pay to much for these items

44 mag.629 classic said...

Doc when the big banks start to collapse would you say that it would be time to go all in on silver,gold,thanks

Mammoth said...

For some ebay entertainment I suggest that you key in Morgan Dollar, click on 'time ending soonest,' open an item that has multiple bids and watch the action in the final minute of bidding.

Repeat this a few times and you will notice a pattern which may be described as a buyer feeding frenzy.

(Actually, for a silver bug this is like watching porn.)

Anonymous said...

Hey Doc, I finally worked out how to post (ie. not in firefox)!

Just to say, thanks for a great site & keep up the great work.

Anonymous said...

I bought a lot of junk silver and small gold coins/bars on ebay a few years ago... I would wait until the last 30 seconds and scoop up some good deals... my silver basis is about $17 and my gold basis is about $925. Lately, however, I noticed that even those last-second bids were overrun by standing bids much higher than the price shown on the auction. There aren't any bargains right now. You have to be quick to get a good price. I've only been burned once: a ten-gram gold bar went missing back when the price was about $1000 per ounce. Other than that, I've done very well. Unfortunately, I lost the entire stash in that boating accident I had a year ago... darn the luck!

georgesilver said...

Willie, Chapman,Sprott, Turk, Weir. Everywhere you turn they are being interviewed.

You wonder if they really have time to do any real analysing.

Just hot air? After all there are paying readers to be entertained.

Anonymous said...

Enjoyable interview but all the Doc's banging noises over Jim were distracting and unprofessional. You should suspend the mic above your desk with a studio boom.

AGXIIK said...

44 mag I just made a note to work my checking account down to the basic basic for normal usage and convert all else to silver and gold. I do not want to leave anything to chance

If this thing blows over I can covert back to paper.

Colin said...

A Must Read, concerns silver as well:

London Trader - Staggering Gold Demand Creating Shortages

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/17_London_Trader_-_Staggering_Gold_Demand_Creating_Shortages.html

SilverCrusader said...

Doc needs to sharpen his interview skills. He needs better prepared questions, fewer pauses, and better flow. Good interviewers are always ready to quickly move on to the next question.

Anonymous said...

SilverCrusader, maybe that is why he is a Chiroprator instead, Einstein...

Anonymous said...

Jim Willie is always right.

Anonymous said...

It looks like there are no new articles posted as this one is still on the top.

allmetalconstruction said...

Good on you for grabbing Jim over here Doc. Hope to see more.

Got some tubes 1oz 2012 Kookaburras today I am happy with. All wrapped up nice makes me feel better.
Does anyone here worry about these stories of Chinese fake Ag coins you can see on youtube? Is that fair dinkum?

Anonymous said...

Cannot believe the volume of petty bullshit complaining going on here:
Exhibit A - "Doc needs to sharpen his interview skills. He needs better prepared questions, fewer pauses, and better flow. Good interviewers are always ready to quickly move on to the next question."
Could you tards please stream back to Fox, MSNBC, or wherever ye come from, and jus leave us be!>?
Doesn't cost you a dime, but you still gotta whine, to hear the biggest, bestest, badass MF'kker of them all lay down here for free!

Anybody what has Jimbo up to bat on a weekly basis is gonna be my home page. Way to go Doc!
"Jim is no holds barred"....LOL...
yup, he's got TPTB in a necklock that is totally
As.phik.see.ating....Jim Willie....WWF goldmedal Champion.

SilverCrusader said...

From Jim Willie directly:

"Forgot to say, it was Doc's first interview
I gave him an outline to use, my habit for all interviews
he chose to wander off the outline, which is fine except that he didnt have much practice
I encouraged him before, and again after
I suggested that next time he make his own notes on my notes
also, when I am talking, he should circle the next lead-in
he will get better
I taught three college statistics courses, well practiced
it is all good
/ jim"

SilverCrusader said...

Anonymous aka "Coward" (830 PM) - I'll put my IQ and net worth in silver and gold up against you any day.

Anonymous said...

hypercritical AND super-defensive too?!?!? Just take your finger away from that pin slowly son, put the grenade down gently, and walk away. It's gonna be OK.

Mammoth said...

Allmetalconstruction asks...
"Does anyone here worry about these stories of Chinese fake Ag coins you can see on youtube?"
- - - - - - - - - -
One good thing about 'junk' silver is these are less likely to be chinese fakes. But just to be certain, whenever I buy (usually from a private individual), I bring along a magnet* & magnifying glass.

And when I pull these out of my bag, I watch the expression on the seller's face - because gut-reactions do not lie. So far, I have not busted anybody trying to sell me fake coins. Oh - and to allay any possible insult to the seller, I will say, "I trust YOU, but I do not necessarily trust whomever you bought these from.

*A magnet will not detect a copper, silver-or gold-plated coin, of course. For buying Gold you may want to invest in a scale and a pair of calipers to verify the weight & size of the coin. Also, there are photographs available on the internet which show the visibile differences between chinese fales and the real deal.

AGXIIK said...

Jim
I really tried not to jump in on the Coward post but, not one to avoid a good fight, I'd say this person couldn't fight his way out of intellectual paper bag if his life depended on it. And his net worth is probably non beaucoup.
Most people who start petty fights like this don't have a pot to pee.
You and Doc dissected just about everything ongoing issue that we, the public who read Silver Doctors, face each day. I scan the blog rolls for about 4 hours a day every day and have for the last 6 months. This is to work on getting up to speed on the ongoing crises since I found myself way behind the knowledge curve.
I told Doc that I am using this interview as my litmus test to evaluate what others opine on the many situations that unfold daily.
Thank you for making your time and insights available to us Silver Doctor readers. This interview helped me make the conscious decision to change my portfolio and the investments therein. Best to you and thanks again for your work

Dave in Denver said...

As predicted, the huge premium on PSLV took a dirt nap once Sprott announced 23mm new shares. The current premium is 12%, which is the average premium over the life of the security.

The 34% premium was not indicative of "tightness" or "backwardation" in the silver market, as Ranting Andy would have people want to believe. It was a short squeeze in the stock.

The premium right now is back to its normal 12% premium. This has been the average premium since PSLV was introduced. I think you can make the assumption that 12% is the premium that large funds would pay for, first and foremost, the accountability of actual holdings built into the PSLV legal structure, and the relative liquidity of being able to move in and out of larger amounts of something that is actual silver.

And that makes sense if you think about it because if you wanted to buy, say five million dollars of silver, for a shorter term trade you would probably incur about 10-12% in total expenses for bid/ask spread on the bars, shipping, insurance, etc....

We have put a big chunk of PSLV in our fund this morning on the assumption that the hedge funds won't be able to help themselves in trying to arb out the spread between PSLV and SLV and the premium will blow out again into at least the mid-20's.

Dave in Denver

www.truthingold.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Dave with this change in the premium to PSLV, what are your thoughts as to silver shortages and how this relates to the price directions of physical silver. You engage in these trades everyday. Predictions are not facts but good data helps get some sense of where prices are going

Dave in Denver said...

I think a silver shortage is brewing globally but we're not there yet. The real shortage is in the amount of paper derivative silver vs. the actual amount of physical that's available to deliver. At some point a large entity invested in SLV or with a big long position LBMA forwards/CME futures is going to demand delivery of the actual physical and will not accept cash.

That's when the real fun begins. I put PSLV in our fund to index silver PLUS capture the inevitable premium blow-out that should occur over the next couple of months.

As for directional bias: silver is ready to rock n roll. May chop a bit longer but it will be an upward chop and then a big 45 degree chart move higher. I don't have a timeframe for that other than to say this year.

Anonymous said...

anyway to remove this article from its sticky spot on the home page? It's old news. It was a good article but it's not like we attacked Iran or something

AGXIIK said...

Good enough for me Dave. I am presently going heavy into silver. Once I run out of space, some gold will go in the vault to balance things out. A one year time line is more time than I need to make my moves
Thanks

allmetalconstruction said...

"I trust you, but I do not trust whomever you bought these from"
I like that Mammoth. I have not had the thrill of shopping in a store for coins and bars, only on-line. I will do the magnet test on my silver and gold though. Despite my bias for the new Perth mint coins I do have some Australian 1966 rounds and was considering buying post 1946 rounds at about 570 AUD's per kilo. I am not sure why they are so inexpensive though. Will have to study a little. Cheers

Doc, for the pm investor your website packs a punch imo. We get to the core of everything here very quickly in a simple format. Maybe it's a winning mix as it is already. I always check your site first up to get to the latest, the fastest..... despite being aware of many other sites.

SilverCrusader said...

Bring it on, AGXIIK, bring it on. If it's an intellectual fight you want, I'll happily give you one - about silver or any other subject. Also, I'd be personally embarrassed to tell thousands of fellow blog readers I've only been following the "ongoing crises" for six months. That distinctly shows me your lack of intellectual curiosity about world events. Maybe you can make up for it by subscribing to Jim Willie's Hat Trick Letter.

Anonymous said...

SilverCrusader - I couldn't agree with you more. AGXIIK is a relatively recent "convert" to silver and now tries to pass himself off as some kind of "expert". Loves to strut his stuff when he in fact knows little about it; just another ILUVPMS.

AGXIIK said...

There seems to be some confusion here about a post I made referring someone who was Anon 8.30 aka Coward. I assumed that Silver Crusader is Jim Willie's blog handle and went from that point.
To start off with, my commendation for Doc and Willie is well noted above. I have listened to the interview and read the material twice. As mentioned, I am using much of this interview as my litmus test to determine the validity of other authors and people presenting opinions in this and other fields.
I am completely on board with the ideas and what was presented in ther interview. My note as to jumping into a scrape was to comment about 'Cowards' criticism of the contents and the interview. The cheap shots ticked me off since criticisms are all to easy to make on this site and I'm not one to lay down when someone is trashing people who have developed their expertise in the real world. And Doc spent many hours putting this interview together and editing for our benefit. Jim Willie's expertise is well known and highly regarded
So when Jim Willie/Silver crusader threw down the gauntlet as well, I agreed with that stance and made my thoughts known. It's not the first time I've taken someone to task for trashing good people like Doc and his guests.
My regard for Doc is well known. My change of heart from a paper trader to a silver advocate is also well known and done only a short time ago. My respect for Jim Willie is based on reading his material that has been provided here on Silver Doctors as well on the blog rolls. Jim has a first rate knowledge of this from years of experience and yes, I am new to this genre and have gone all in on this subject from a business standpoint, the purchase of PMs and making it my business to know as much as I can before I make any statements on this site.
If Jim is reading this post then I make my apologies as to my words if they created any confusion. They were not intended to be critical in any way of the interview or its content. My thoughts are outlined above and in others posts that refer to the interview.

I also make it clear that I am not an expert on the silver of PMs but I know who is and use their teaching to help me get up to speed.
My background in in finance, business, economic matters and related fields. And when I talk about that I bring about 35 years to the table. Most of my posts refer to that arena, not PMs except those stragegies that work for me.
My best regards to all the readers of Silver Doctors and my apologies if I offended someone. That was not my intention.

Mammoth said...

Better to have become a 'convert' to Physical six months ago, then to still be steadfastly against stacking.

In a conversation with a very bright colleague last week, he told me that he still just could not bring himself to buy any PM's.

AGXIIK said...

A small confession
I started buying PMs about 3 years ago but without focus. But it wasn't until I started reading up on this site that I saw the need to get more involved in better systems. An expert I am not; just an avid learner. Maybe some day I'll get it figured out, maybe

Anonymous said...

Greek one year bonds at 466% yield, are you kidding me? The stock market is like the SS Poseidon partying on New Years Eve. The tidal wave of a Greek default will soon turn the financial world upside down. Got silver?

AGXIIK said...

Silver Crusader
Ok, I'll admit it.
you whipped me into subscribing to Golden Jackass. I was planning to in any case. I'll see you on the same page there most likely. Keep stacking

Anonymous said...

Anyone know how much gold Hugo Chavez got delivered yet to date out of the 90 tons held in England by the BOE and others?

AC_Doctor

Anonymous said...

110 tons were delivered a few months ago.

Anonymous said...

I personally believe silver is a trap. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining. This means that supply does not follow demand. Also, one of the major consumers of silver has gone by the wayside, photography. So be wary of buying silver. It is a different story for gold.

Anonymous said...

About 40% of the silver comes from those sources. And as the world economy crams back on recession and depression, silver will become increasing scarce as these base metals are in decreasing demand.
This scarcity will bump prices.
Photography was about 2-3% of silver use in the last few years given the digital pictures. But the industrial use of silver is ramping up to as much as 35-40% of total world production usage of 900,000,000 oz or so.
I am not convinced silver is a trap but the prices on the road can be very very bumpy

Conax said...

Silver is Real Money.
The paper game is the trap they've set for you.

Carry on.

Anonymous said...

This is the same guy who said, ISDA won't let Greece default to avoid payout of CDS

-Hotsaucze

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