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| Silver's Next Major Rally |
The Doc spent the evening last night observing a group of sheople discuss silver.
Yes, just observing.
The Doc's mom had invited her extended family over for dinner for a reunion of sorts. Over dinner, one of the extended family members enthusiastically brought up the fact that he had recently made over $700 by taking all of the old pre-1964 silver coins his wife had collected during the 1980's as a waitress into the local coin shop to cash them in-because silver "has never been worth as much as it is now- they gave me $27 per dollar of face value!"
Immediately mom looked at dad (who taught The Doc everything he knows about sound money and convinced me to go all-in on gold and silver in 1999) while my wife looked at me- both females obviously anticipating their spouses to pounce upon the opportunity to discuss the topic of silver and the protection of sound money against the ravages of inflation. Both must have been shocked however, as both the Doc and Sr. just sat and focused on our steaks.
These people must have gone on for 15 minutes boasting about how much they made by selling those worthless old coins. They added that some "crazy guy" at the coin shop had tried to keep them from selling the silver because "one day soon silver will be the only money worth anything in this country."
So the two "crazy guys" at the dinner table who shared the viewpoint of the "crazy guy" in the coin shop just kept chewing their steak.
I almost told him I would have given him more for his silver than the coin shop did, but bit my tongue. What's the point- it's not like he will have any more silver to dump and sell anytime soon.
There is a good biblical teaching regarding sharing your wisdom with a certain class of sheople. I understood its truth completely by experience tonight for perhaps the first time.
"Do not give what is holy to dogs, and do not throw your pearls before swine, or they will trample them under their feet, and turn and tear you to pieces"
Having an understanding of the truth can make social conversations ridiculously depressing.
Obviously, I am more than willing to literally share hours of my precious time and life educating others on economics, fiat money, and the importance and protection of gold and silver- but there is a class of sheople that are not worth bothering the waste of breath.
These extended family members were educated individuals. Unlike the Average Jane who literally did not not know what gold and silver are prior to The Doc convincing her to purchase physical bullion, they understood the value of silver- having first taken it out of circulation in the 1980's, and then kept it all these years.
Six months ago, at a similar family get together, Mrs. Doc's grandfather- a tough, grizzly old codger who fought in the Korean War, told the family he had cashed in his over $2,000 face value pre-1964 silver for $27/oz as it was the highest he had seen silver in 30 years- and his only regret was that he hadn't waited till the end of April when he could have sold it for nearly $50/oz.
Over the past 6 months, and especially during last March and April while silver ran up to nearly $50, a significant percentage of those American's who have held silver for years and even decades have sold most or all of it into what is perceived to be the highest price ever for silver. These are individuals who have a knowledge of the value of silver- but absolutely NO UNDERSTANDING of inflation or fiat currency debasement (meaning that even at nominal highs, silver is nowhere near CPI adjusted highs, much less TRUE INFLATION adjusted highs, which are now approximately $350/oz- 10 fold higher than current fiat prices.
It is of my personal opinion that nearly everyone who purchased silver in the past 40 years and has been waiting for the price to get back high enough so that they can sell it- has now done so. (minus perhaps the few that purchased silver for the first time during the last week of April 2011 without an understanding of WHY they were purchasing it, and will dump their positions as silver again reaches $50)
I believe that nearly everyone who might sell long-held physical silver anywhere near current prices has now already done so.
This means that the remaining holders of physical silver are those who have an understanding not only of the value of silver- but also of its spectacular supply/demand fundamentals, the global epidemic of QE, the systemic debt issues among all Western nations, the potential collapse of the Euro and the dollar, and the $1.25 + QUADRILLION in worthless derivatives that are the ultimate reason for the entire financial collapse.
The remaining holders of physical silver UNDERSTAND why they purchased their silver, have no intentions of selling it back for fiat federal reserve debt notes at anywhere near current prices IF EVER, and are THE STRONGEST OF STRONG HANDS.
Most will not depart with their phyzz until silver reaches at least $150-$200/oz at a minimum, or before a collapse of the US dollar.
Look for already extremely tight supply issues to come to a head during the next major rally in silver. Demand always increases as the public becomes excited about a rise in silver, and chases the price into the mini-exponential rallies. During the bull market to date- this increased investor demand has been met to some extent with increased selling of long-held silver by those waiting for years and even decades to get out of their silver positions.
The next major rally will not see this source of supply- as it has already been exhausted.
Combine this with QE3 and also the fact that The Morgue will likely NOT be massively increasing silver shorts into the next major rally for the first time of this bull market due to the coming (albeit at least a year out for non-spot month contracts) implementation of position limits for silver- and we are looking at the potential for silver to literally go SUPERNOVA when $50 is cleared decisively.
This is the basis for The Doc's $70 silver call for the end of 2011- as the next rally in silver should be the sharpest and steepest of the entire bull market to date.
When this rally kicks off and whether silver sees $70 by the end of 2011 or in 2012 will depend on when The Fed publicly announces the launch of QE3. Judging by the level of Fed Speak over the past few weeks, it appears official QE3 is nearing.
Any corrections back into the lower $30's need to be bought aggressively, as once The Bernank kicks off the next rally in silver, the train will have left the station.

36 comments:
AWESOME POST DOC! I agree, won't be many sellers left next time.
I don't say this often enough Doc, but thanks for all you do for us...appreciate all your hard work!
We need to support The Doc people...make those donations and click those links!
Click click click!
Yeah I've seen those types who have made foolish mistakes and have weak hands.. you really can't talk any sense into them.. I find it ironic that anyone who finds silver in change subconsciously knows to keep it and hold it but when it comes time to sell they convince themselves that it's worthless LOL..
SilverSpiff
There is a lot of people wringing their hands over the morgue adding 4700 shorts to their holdings. Remember the Morgue sold 6000 shorts back in March and we all know how that went for them. The short contracts they added were to keep the price from exploding this week. Also they can't have position limits be voted on then have an explosion in price. this would show to the people that there is manipulation then that would lead to people knowing what the effects of manipulation has done which is scarcity. Then the sheeple dive in. Doc your relative is going to be kicking himself in the ass pretty soon.
Sierra
The debate on whether buy, hold or sell silver is raging and will not abate for many months. Shortages in silver supply will end the debate soon enough
But a debate on whether to buy, sell or hold food and water would never arise if the shelves at your local grocery store were bare. Silver is just another element of the debate that concerns scarce resources.
People in the North East may be without power for 2 weeks. After the pounding of hurricane Irene, this terribly unseasonal snowfall is putting a mess of hurt on millions of people.
I bet some are wishing they had stocked up. I bet they are not debating that vital matter
The notion of buying and holding a resource as scarce as silver should be non existence but since only 1% of the people are even remotely aware of this, we have a distinct advantage in being part of the Silver Doc community and able, thus far, to share our diverse opinions on this subject.
Central banking and central government fiscal disasters usually unfold slowly, giving the observant of us time to GET PREPARED. Ownership of PM is one leg of the preppers bible.
During these times of volatility in the metals market my philosophy is thus
TRADE PAPER
PINCH PROFITS
STACK SMACK
Lather, rinse and repeat
Do so until you have no more room to store your goodies. And then get a squad strength Band of Brothers to watch your back as you watch theirs. Nuff' said
Good article with one small point that needs clarification.........
Why sell Silver when it reaches $150 - $200?
Why would anyone ever sell Silver for FIAT currency?
The reason for owning Silver and Gold is to have real money with real value.
The only time to sell is when there is something that resembles real money and I just don't see that happening.
You hold onto your Gold and Silver and only sell parts of it when you need something.
We agree georgesilver- we do not plan on selling any of our phyzz back for fiat. I was not recommending one sell silver at $150-$200, my point was that I don't see those who hold silver with strong hands selling before this point. Around this point there may again be a decent amount of "cashing in".
Obviously your view George is correct and will be the best plan. (Or using your silver as collateral for a loan, which is another option down the road- this will allow you to obtain capital to invest in deeply distressed assets, while retaining your physical silver)
I found 2.5 oz of silver at a yard sale for a total of $2.00! I can't believe people are practically giving it away. Knowledge is power ;)
I found a pocketwatch 2oz for $5.
Mrs. Doc picked up a 50 piece set of SOLID STERLING silverware at an antique sale this summer for a total of $5! Not bad, eh?
Nice.
I see I am not the only one hunting for these bargains. Boy..$5 for 50 pieces of flatware...awsome!! A pocket watch for $5...wow!
Just had luncheon with an erudite, also an PhD, he has never heard of Doc Ron Paul~~~~~~~~ when I told him NATO had killed more people since February in Libya than had ever 'died' under Col Gadaffi, he said but BBC had not said any of this. They walk among us! I used to be a pupil to said Erudite and when processing my eidetic, I can recall[to him] all he taught me, back in the days when the 'dead sea' was still 'critically ill'
A pocket watch for$5??!! :O * I WANT, I WANT IT TOO !! *
Click, click, click! ;)
georgesilver makes a good point. Unless we ever get real money (if we can ever elect someone like Ron Paul to office) Silver and Gold and Copper and Nickel are real money and will be increasingly recognized as such and usable as such.
This thoroughly delightful jabber reminded me of an observation I've been making. Silver plate is still sitting on shelves of second-hand stores for months on end. That is all I need to know that this 'bubble' talk is all just propaganda. Awesome finds out there folks ... keep poking!
Damn, hot stuff!!! Finding silver laying in the street.Wow
Eyes up! Look lively! Cruise the garage sales, check the swap meetings, ping Craigs List and advertise that you are buying.
If you sell silver then buy something tangible like arable land, tangibles that you can use or eat. Trade only when it is completely to your advantage. Ally yourself with like minded people who have their eyes up to
Wanna also send kudos to Doc for another salient perspective on wealth. Your family's lucky to have you, Doc; and your dad too apparently.
hmmm...what exactly do you mean by that Pat? Are you saying that the general public is not replacing their silver with silver plated items yet?
Scottie, in other words, the general public is ignoring silver. I figure that when 'hunger' for it actually reaches a 'fever pitch', those plated items will move in hours or days.
I hope Bix Wier and BrotherJohn are right on the $100 by year end massive silver spike.
Wonder if the Bernank and his doves will announce QE3 at the start of this upcoming week?? certainly possible. and thus making the $70 or $100 by year end possible.
gold and silver are powderkegs waiting to go off as we talk.
so much of this is about that "ONE BIG HOME RUN".
Well I dont have news about that. I think it will go up an go down, but what I find is that Physical Silver seldom goes down enuf to make it worth actually selling considering the "SPREAD", and then of course buying it back after. Better, IMO to "STACK the SMACK" and take Paper Profits on a cyclical basis and keep an intensely LOWER profile, so you dont have to defend anything. Selling SILVER ? Yes at maybe half of mine when the DOW, GOLD and SILVER at at the same level. The other half stands in waiting as a silent security sentinel.
I FEEL SORRY FOR THE RELATIVES THAT SOLD THE SILVER!
Obviously they have no understanding of the current financial situation. Sadly, they will wish they had it back within a few more years.
Remember folks...We may have another year, at best, to keep stacking. Time is going by fast and you should use this opportunity to keep stacking and adding to your position.
brother john and bix weir are idiots for saying that silver will hit 100 by the end of the year. Not gonna happen.
^^^^^^^^^^Anon above. How can you be so sure? have you time-travelled to the end of the year and checked? hmmm, didn't think so. So your guess is as good as theirs, asshole.
I am a major silver bug. All I buy is the phyzz stuff. I have about 75% in silver and about 25% in gold bullion. I only buy US stuff such as the American Eagles.
I am also a major Christian and Jesus Christ is my Lord and my Savior.
I am also a major prepper.
With all this being said and the way the New World Order is rolling out full steam ahead, there very well may come a time fairly soon:
Ezekiel 7:19
They will fling their silver into the streets and their gold will become an abhorrent thing; their silver and their gold will not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD. They cannot satisfy their appetite nor can they fill their stomachs, for their iniquity has become an occasion of stumbling.
Why could this happen. The NWO RFID chip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl2LMmwteCA
I continue to stack as I wll never take a mark of any kind or a RFID chip.
I will have my phyzz to barter and trade with and I shall remain in the boonies no where near any city.
God Bless!!
doc, great post, but this:
"literally go SUPERNOVA"
don't use the word literally when you mean the opposite of literally
silver price reaching $50 will not cause silver to collapse in on its own gravitational field and then explode in a burst of gamma and other radiation.
anonymous 7:22- you're right that silver and gold will not save the wicked in the day of the Lord- but gravely mistaken that the mark of the beast is some scientific rfid chip. God cares about obedience to Him and His law. The mark of the beast in in the right hand and foreheads of the beast's followers are clearly symbolic for their actions and beliefs. Revelation specifically states that the ONLY ones that WONT receive the mark of the beast are those who are faithful to keep God's commandments. Even 99% of so-called Christian's today will not meet this requirement as they mistakenly believe that Sunday is the Sabbath- and by keeping the day of worship of pagan sun god worshipers rather than the 7th day as God commanded- have already identified themselves with the beast's religious system rather than the creator's. This is why Revelation says COME OUT OF HER (Mystery Babylon- sun worship) MY PEOPLE, THAT YOU MAY NOT PARTAKE OF HER PLAGUES.
God cares about your heart and your obedience to Him, not some high-tech RFID chip.
I got 1troy pound silver round for $20, 500 oz silver coins for $2000. The guy need to repair his clunker.
I'm an admitted PM Bug.
But...I'm thinking that if the G/S/R gets below 20, I'd part with some of my ASE's in exchange for some AGE's.
Came close in the Spring...but I didn't bite at about 31.
One of my ASE rolls for an AGE ?
That's a bit tempting.
Any thoughts on this idea ?
Thanks.
Another day of vertical moves in silver prices, gold prices, Yen, Dollar, etc... Another day of manipulation and government interventions. It is a wonder why anyone still has ANY confidence in the valuations that paper currencies (not money!) represent. FIAT is dying!
fuck!
Complete Moron said....
Anonymous said...
brother john and bix weir are idiots for saying that silver will hit 100 by the end of the year. Not gonna happen.
October 30, 2011 5:54 PM
How do you know? With all the movements in and out of comex warehouses, With silver being in extremely strong hands.. with no leveraged tech funds or specualtors to be plucked by the commercial shorts, Silver has a great chance to fill that vacuum void especially if QE3 is announced soon. With these currency wars hitting full stride it would not surprise me to see this.
Sierrahpbt
Anon-Oct30_8:17pm,
I am also with you on the S to G conversion. I should have done it at 31, if i get an oppurtunity next time, i will for sure. In the longrun, it is always safe to have G. Silver is just a hype later when Gold will leave everything in dust when it goes up including silver. No central banks ever thing silver is worth accumulating. Read about FreeGold if youare not aware. People holding Silver will be sorry at that time.
Only a few thousand small, strong hands left! Lets go!!
Great read Doc. Lots of good comments too....and a few not so good. Every man should have a wife like yours.....$5 frn's for all that Sterling.....what a woman! :)
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